For years, a group of researchers from Conicet investigated what impact the climate change facing the world could have on the incidence of dengue in the country. That is, how the transformations that climate and meteorological patterns are experiencing would affect the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector of that disease.
The scientific results obtained were relevant, but they also represent a warning signal, not only for health policy decision makers, but also for citizens. The study was titled “Relationship between climatic variables and incidence of dengue in Argentina”, and was published in the prestigious journal Environmental Health Perspectives.
The research investigated epidemiological, biological and climatic indicators, with the intention of generating tools for better prevention of the disease. Doctors María Soledad López, Andrea Gómez, Gabriela Müller, Elisabeth Walker, and doctors Michael Robert and Elizabeth Estallo, among many other collaborators, participated in the research (see the full group).
The scientists from Santa Fe received the distinction of declaration of interest in the Municipal Council, within the framework of the Forum “Is it here to stay? Let’s talk about Dengue.”
What is
Climate change is defined as significant and long-lasting variations in weather patterns globally or in a particular region. “When we talk about climate change, for example, we can mention progressive increases in temperature or changes in precipitation patterns, such as those regions where more rain is recorded during a certain time,” explained Dr. López.
But another consequence of climate change is the expansion of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, mainly in tropical and subtropical areas, such as the Central region of the country, including the province of Santa Fe. These diseases are dengue, Zika and chikungunya, transmitted by Aedes aegypti species.
Lifecycle
“These organisms (mosquitoes) are ectothermic, that is, they depend closely on temperature for their reproduction. Their life cycle, geographical distribution and behavior are closely related to temperature,” said the researcher.
See alsoWith human odors as “bait”, they created traps to hunt the dengue mosquito Regarding the life span of the Aedes aegypti, with very high temperatures, the larval cycle accelerates: “We go from the egg to the adult mosquito in just seven or ten days. But with colder temperatures, the cycle extends over time. This is key for public health,” emphasized Dr. López.
The expert drew a global overview of the evolution of dengue epidemics in the last five years. The salient fact is that the Americas are where this increase in cases of this disease transmitted by Aedes aegyti has occurred.
In 2023, in all American countries, 1.6 million cases were reported. That number almost doubled in 2024. The most affected countries were Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil.
From left to right, Drs. Andrea Gómez, María Soledad López and Andrea Uboldi -provincial Health Secretary-, during the forum on dengue held at the local Legislature. Credit: Courtesy Council 1998 was the year dengue was reintroduced in the country. And the first major dengue epidemic was in 2020: then 2023 and 2024 happened. “This year’s epidemic was four times larger than that of 2023, and nine times larger than that of 2020. This gives an idea of the magnitude of the problem.”, warned the researcher.
All in all, “what we found is that dengue epidemics increased progressively and exponentially as the years went by. Furthermore, the frequencies of epidemics were increasing,” added Dr. López, showing statistical tables and maps.
See alsoDengue: insecticide-resistant mosquitoes identified in the country In geographical distribution, the distribution of dengue is primarily concentrated in the northwest area; secondly, the northeast region; third, the central region (including Santa Fe), and in fourth place are Cuyo and the southern region, which have a low incidence of dengue.
The weather, the rain
The study analyzed the evolution of climatic incidents over a period of 60 years. “Here we detected that the trends are positive, that temperature patterns increased. And regarding precipitation trends, what we see is that there are not very homogeneous patterns,” he argued.
“There are areas of the country where there are rains with positive trends, including the Central, Central Eastern and Northeastern areas. “More precipitation was detected here than other regions such as Northwest Cuyo and Patagonia,” López completed his idea.
Conclusions
With all this, The conditions for the transmission of the virus – which generates dengue disease – are increasingly better and ideal for the reproduction and proliferation of the mosquito vector..
See alsoDengue: what symptoms differentiate it from Covid-19 In conclusion, the study showed that climate change manifests itself in Argentina with homogeneous increases in temperature in the different regions, and with changes in precipitation patterns (more rain), “which could have influenced the expansion of dengue epidemics, from the north to the central region”.
“There is a consolidation of the transmission of the virusbecause epidemics are repeated every time and with more and more frequency,” concluded Dr. María Soledad López.
The complete group
The research group that carried out this relevant scientific study is made up of Dr. Gabriela Müller; Dr María Soledad López; Dr. Andrea Gómez; Dr Elizabeth Estallo; Dr. Michael Robert; Dr: Elizabeth Walker; Dr. Yanina Prieto; Tech. Julio Galarza; and the student assistants Santiago Rodríguez, Camila Albrecht and Cintia Palavecino.
They are part of the Conicet Santa Fe, but they are also part of research institutes at the UNL (such as the Center for Studies of Climate Variability and Change, Cervacam), the UNC and the University of Virginia (USA), among other prestigious academic entities. The forum held in the Council was promoted by Councilor Laura Mondino (PS-Interblock “Unidos…”).
