It is one of those ties that are celebrated more on one side than the other. What is it about? A new electoral survey measured ahead of the 2025 legislative elections and left a technical parity: 45% to 44% for the ruling party and opposition. Of course, if these numbers are given, The advance of Javier Milei’s government on Congress would be very important.
The data that it advances Clarion This Sunday they are from a study conducted by two analysts: Viviana Isasi and Julio Burdman. They made a national survey of 2,067 casesbetween the 8th and 11th of this month, with +/- 2.14% margin of error.
Burdman is political scientist, professor at the UBA and made measurements for recent elections with the Electoral Observatory firm. Isasi is political consultant and specializes, in particular, in studying youth phenomena.
It has been at least two months since electoral studies that Clarín carried out began to appear. All but one – from a firm linked to Peronism – for now give the libertarians as favorites. Even in districts like the province of Buenos Aires.
It is, in any case, a very precarious scenario. Not only because there is more than a year left for the national PASO (will there be PASO?), but because the competition board is not configured. Basic doubts: will libertarians and the PRO go together? Will moderates like Larreta/Lousteau/Massa try to build something outside of traditional structures?
The numbers from the latest survey
On page 7 of their report, Isasi and Burdman get into the “voting intention for the 2025 legislative elections.” They make a binary approach. Would you vote for “candidates who support Milei” or for “candidates opposed to Milei”? Or don’t you know?
The result, as anticipated, was a technical tie. 45% for official applicants and 44% for opposition candidates. The remaining 11% are undecided.
But to understand these favorable government numbers, something is worth reviewing. other survey data that help you understand how to get there.
The image of MileiFor example, it has a clear balance in favor of the libertarian, with 52 points positive and 40 negative. Although, strikingly, the management approval/disapproval this inverted: 43 approve and 52 disapprove.
The report highlights this: “Approval of the government’s performance falls 5 points compared to the previous month, and the gap widens (9 points) with Milei’s personal popularity (52 for positive personal image, 43 for performance approval)” .
In line with other studies, there is also a drop in concern about inflation, which remains at the top but shares leadership with corruption, both around 25 points. Third is insecurity, with 20%.
As for the economic expectationsanother key fact in this type of studies, although the balance is more negative than in other surveys, the Government has also been raising this issue here. 32% are optimistic and 53% are pessimisticwhen in April the ratio was 23% / 60%.
It also improves a little, although they are still a warning, the tolerance time that the respondents show regarding the adjustment. Compared to May, the group that says it is not willing to wait “nothing” or “just a few months” went from 48% to 44%; while at the other end those who will wait “whatever is necessary” went from 11% to 14%.
