Thanks to notable support from the agricultural sector and an important recovery from industry and commerce, economic activity in the country once again gave positive signs and with a turn in trends, reached a variation of 5.5% for the month of April, according to the most recent reports from Dane.
This was recorded in the reports of the Economic Monitoring Indicator for the fourth month of the year, where it can be seen that this percentage of growth marks a notable rebound compared to the -1.1% of the same period in 2023 and that the -1 .5% seen in March of this year, leaving behind for now the ghost of the slowdown, in the midst of a context that calls for good news.
Piedad Urdinola, director of Dane. Courtesy – Dane
For the preliminary month of April 2024, the ISE in its original series was located at 120.27, which represented a growth of 5.52% compared to the month of April 2023 (113.97),” indicated the Dane. in their reports, which in turn highlight that “in its series adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, it stood at 123.10, which represented a growth of 3.95% compared to the month of April 2023 (118.42) ”.
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For Julio Romero, an economist at Corficolombiana, this shows that the country is already taking direction again or at least that is what is being perceived with the results shown this month by the statistical authorities. Likewise, he highlights that it must be taken advantage of so that the economy continues to recover.
Indicators PHOTO: iStock
“Positive surprise in the growth of economic activity in Colombia: the seasonally adjusted ISE grew 4% annually in April, its best performance since the beginning of 2023 and above the 2% expected by us. With this we see that there are signs of reactivation in most sectors,” he indicated.
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The field marked out again
Reviewing the disaggregated data provided by the ISE for April, it must be said that once again agriculture was the greatest driver of the economy, since primary activities had a variation of 10.2%, which not only leaves behind -4.1% in March, but exceeds -2.7% in April 2023 and -1% in the same period in 2022.
SMEs Archive/Time
It is worth remembering that this segment had raised alarm bells in the last report, since it dropped unexpectedly after several months in which, as now, it has been the greatest milestone of economic activity in the country. Regarding the series adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, the data for April was 106.29, which represented a growth of 7.35% compared to the month of April 2023 (99.01).
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This is undoubtedly good news for Colombians or a “positive surprise,” as several analysts have highlighted. Even President Gustavo Petro himself celebrated on his social networks, highlighting that Colombia is doing well in several items of the economy, especially in those that have been his main bet.
Colombian pesos iStock
“Good in agriculture, in foreign tourism, good in industry. The reactivation has begun after Duque’s artificial overheating and his rise in inflation. We lower inflation and reactivate production, which is what generates wealth. Agriculture without coffee: growth in one year: 9.3%; foreign tourism; 7.3% and industry: 4.1%,” said the head of state.
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However, for José Manuel Restrepo, rector of the EIA University and former Minister of Finance, although any rebound or positive development in economic indicators will always be good news, it is not yet time to let our guard down and monitoring must be maintained. arrested to the movement of the economy, taking into account that it is necessary to recover investment levels.
“It is positive because this can encourage the productive dynamics of the country. I highlight a very good performance of the primary sector where there is agriculture and hydrocarbons, with growth of 7.35% seasonally adjusted and services at 4.55% seasonally adjusted,” this expert initially stated.
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Restrepo Abondano added that “the secondary sector is not a good result.”, where the industry is with a drop in the seasonally adjusted series of 0.09%, which is why he raised the question about “whether this data is sustainable or not in the coming months. Let us remember that the statistical base of this same indicator in April 2023 was the worst in the entire year. Therefore, it was easier to have obtained a significant growth result.”
José Manuel Restrepo, rector of the EIA University Sergio Acero Yate / Portfolio
Another analysis on the matter, by Luis Fernando Mejía, director of Fedesarrollo, suggests taking into account that this year Holy Week occurred in the month of March, which generates a calendar effect on economic dynamics.
“This figure is influenced by a calendar effect: Easter this year was in March, while last year it was in April…adjusting for this effect and seasonal factors, growth was 4% annually in April, exceeding expectations of the market”he indicated.
Mejía also asked to pay attention to the public sector and social services, since from his perspective, this explains a large part of the good dynamics observed in this report, being clear that several sectors continue to contract.
Leaving aside the agricultural sector and looking at other sectors such as secondary activities, where manufacturing industries and construction are located, its annual variation was 2.8%. This figure also greatly exceeds the -7.3% in March and -6.1% in April 2023, but falls short of the 10.7% for the same period in 2022.
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Meanwhile, regarding the tertiary sectors, where the oil is measured in sectors such as real estate, communications and technology or Commerce, as well as the dynamics of the public services industry; its variation in April reached 5.1%; being the second highest, after agricultural activities, a figure that marks a strong rebound compared to to 0.6% in April 2023, but it is still short compared to the 12.5% obtained two years ago.
Ministry of Finance and Public Credit Photo: CEET – Néstor Gómez
Likewise, for the trade-only line, it must be said that although negative territory emerged and exceeded -2.4% in March and -1.7% in April 2023, for now it barely reaches 0.2%. in the Dane accounts.
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This is why analysts like José Ignacio López, president of Anifmaintain that everything mentioned is a positive surprise, both in the seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted figures, but that we still have to wait to know if victory is declared or not.
Economic growth Private file
“Positive surprise of the growth data in April, with an increase of 2% compared to March and 4% compared to the same month of the previous year (in the seasonally adjusted series). Primary sector (agriculture and hydrocarbons) and public administration and entertainment with very positive growth figures. Trade in negative territory,” he indicated.
López, like other experts, maintains that “the May figures will tell us if this rebound was more punctual or lasting. The economy would be returning to a level 10% higher than the pre-pandemic level.”
