The loss of beneficiaries from Isapres in recent years is mainly explained by the price, which has risen above the CPI and wages. The high cost for beneficiaries of Isapres’ health plans, the risk of bankruptcy of some and the Complementary Coverage Modality that Fonasa will offer its members, will generate greater competition, which will translate into greater migration from Isapres to Fonasa.
According to the information provided by the Superintendency of Health, the beneficiaries at the end of each year and the nominal income of the Isapres are as shown below:
If you divide the income by the number of beneficiaries and then divide by 12, you obtain an average monthly price per beneficiary for each year. The average price and its annual variation are shown in the following table:
If the Average Price and the Number of Beneficiaries are graphed, an inverse correlation is seen; if the average price rises, the number of beneficiaries falls.
If the Average Price (Y) is related to the Number of Beneficiaries (X) by means of a linear regression, the following regression is obtained with a correlation coefficient of 0.97:
Y = 4,285,298 – 12.0 x
If it is estimated that the increase in the nominal average price of Isapres plans during 2024 will be of the order of 20%, the number of beneficiaries as of December 2024, according to the regression model, would be 2,532,804 as can be seen in the following graph:
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