The dissident guerrilla group known as the Second Marquetalia has begun peace negotiations with the Colombian government, and appears to be close to reaching an agreement because of its weakened condition.
On June 24, representatives of the Second Marquetalia and the Colombian government met in Caracas, Venezuela to begin peace talks within the framework of Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace policy. The initiative aims to persuade the country’s main armed organizations to lay down their arms in a series of parallel negotiations.
The Second Marquetalia, created by former commanders of the extinct Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), is the third major criminal organization that agrees to dialogue, after the National Liberation Army (ELN) and another faction of the former FARC called the Central General Staff (EMC).
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Both the armed group and the government have strong incentives to quickly forge a peace agreement. The Second Marquetalia is in a desperate situation, having lost large areas of territory and several leaders in recent years. For its part, Petro’s government is eager to show progress on its Total Peace initiative as it reaches the halfway point of its four-year term, while criminal groups grow stronger and violence increases in some parts of the country. .
As negotiations begin, InSight Crime analyzes three reasons why peace talks with the Second Marquetalia could succeed, even though others have failed.
Last chance for the leaders of the Second Marquetalia
After Petro assumed the presidency in 2022, he recognized the Second Marquetalia as a political organization, opening the door to peace talks with the group. But Petro’s successor may not accept this appointment, adding a sense of urgency to the negotiations.
The political position of the Second Marquetalia was unclear at the beginning of Petro’s term. The group was founded in 2019 by former FARC commanders who had chosen to abandon the historic 2016 peace agreement signed during the administration of former Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos. By abandoning the agreement, the leaders lost the privileges that came with it, including seats in Congress, and political recognition.
Petro’s decision to recognize the group as a political actor was condemned, even by those who negotiated the 2016 peace agreement.
Humberto de la Calle, a senator who was head of the government delegation in the peace accords with the FARC, said members of the Second Marquetalia had already walked out of peace talks once.
“I do not agree with reopening negotiations with Iván Márquez, they had their opportunity… Who guarantees us that this time [el grupo] “Don’t default again?” he said in a video posted on his X account.
A peace treaty with Petro may therefore represent the Second Marquetalia’s last chance to receive the benefits of voluntary disarmament, including less severe prison sentences.
“Márquez and those who laid down their weapons earlier are probably not going to have a government that treats them better. I mean, if they want to get the best deal possible, the time is now,” Kyle Johnson, co-founder of the Conflict Responses Foundation, a Colombian NGO that investigates armed conflict and organized crime, told InSight Crime.
The way out of an unwinnable war
The Second Marquetalia may be inclined to sign an agreement due to its military weakness.
In 2021, the Second Marquetalia waged a war over drug routes against the 10th Front of the ex-FARC mafia and the ELN on the Colombian-Venezuelan border. The conflict was exhausting for the Second Marquetalia, and it has not yet fully recovered.
During that period, Colombian security forces and rival groups killed most of the organization’s top leaders, including Seuxis Pausías Hernández, alias “Jesús Santrich,” Henry Castellanos Garzón, alias “Romaña,” and Hernán Darío Velásquez, alias “El Paisa.” The Second Marquetalia is now led by Luciano Marín Arango, alias “Iván Márquez,” who recently returned to the public scene almost a year after he was presumed dead, although he appears to be in poor health. This loss of leadership rendered much of the organization inoperative.
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Today, the territorial power of the Second Marquetalia is limited to a few strongholds along the Colombian-Venezuelan border and in southwestern Colombian departments such as Nariño, Cauca and Putumayo.
But even in these regions it does not have the military capacity to act alone. The Second Marquetalia has been forced to form alliances with stronger local organisations, such as the ELN and the Border Commands.
This is not a promising future for the group, and Total Peace may be their last option to avoid total military defeat.
Moderates gain influence
The death of most of the founders of the Second Marquetalia raises the voices of the mid-level commanders, who are more open to negotiating.
Santrich, Romaña and El Paisa, the most radical voices at the top of the group, had little incentive to engage in peace talks, having lost any privileges from the 2016 peace deal when they abandoned it.
They were also targets of the authorities both in Colombia and abroad. For example, before his death, Santrich was accused of drug trafficking crimes by the United States.
But Márquez, the only living founder of the group, has shown himself willing to negotiate in the past. He was part of an effort to demobilize the FARC in the 1980s, when part of the organization, including Márquez, split and became part of a political party. The effort ended in tragedy, as military and paramilitary groups massacred thousands of party members, and the FARC returned to the battlefield.
Now, in poor health, Márquez may be more willing than ever to reach an agreement. In addition, other commanders of the Second Marquetalia have expressed their willingness to participate in the negotiations.
For example, Giovanny Andrés Rojas, alias “Araña”, leader of Commandos de la Frontera, one of the strongest allies of the Second Marquetalia, said that his group would be willing to lay down its weapons in exchange for “amnesty, forgiveness and forgetting.” . His position was supported by several other commanders.
Featured image: Peace talks between the Second Marquetalia and the Colombian government in Caracas, Venezuela. Credit: Associated Press.
