The real estate market of 2024 is being very different from that of 2020-2023. Key regulations for the sector changed, inflation, although high, is lower and decelerating and the uncertainty is minoralthough it is never zero in Argentina.
The macroeconomy remains fraught with challenges, especially in relation to output and income, but the conversation change.
Until mid-April, public conversation about the real estate market focused on the impact of Decree 70/23 on the rental market and the incipient upturn in sales transactions.
What was not talked about was mortgage creditwhich was traveling (and continues, until the wheel starts to turn) in one of the worst moments of Argentine history.
But that changed when the first banks started announcing that they were launching mortgage credit lines. In total, 20 banks announced that they were offering mortgage financing again in 2 months. One every 3 days.
This disruption has to do, in part, with the fact that banks no longer have the uncertainty about What will happen to the instrument? that allows credit, GRAPE.
Until 2023, there was a latent possibility that either the national Government or Congress would modify the operation of the UVA or mortgage loans in UVA, which It would have been very problematic for legal security..
That changed, today there is no longer any doubt that the instrument remains unchanged.
On the other hand, there is a commitment by the banking system to the economic plan, in addition to the fact that the public sector stopped being a forced client and, therefore, the banks they must refocus in credit to private individuals.
On the demand side, the people, the situation is more complex. Although this It’s a good time to take out a loanthat idea clashes with the concrete possibility to access.
That is to say, The macroeconomic conditions are given, but the individual situation is not. And that is, paradoxically, one of the factors of why is it a good time.
This is because, until now, property values remain depressed, beyond the small rebound registered in recent months. The stretch to grow is still very large, and will need credit to be sustainable.
On the other hand, the credits are being offered with attractive interest rates, similar to those found in Latin American countries whose macroeconomy is much more orderly. That is, the margin for the interest rate range to improve It is low.
Finally, current real wage levels are low, historically low. So, if you think about a country that returns to a minimum path of equilibrium, salaries should improve. Maybe not this year or next, but we’re talking about a term of 20 yearsFor example.
One last point to consider about the volume to expect is the participation of the public component and the social structure. In 2017-2018, perhaps the most comparable reference, there were some differences that allowed credit growth to be vertiginous and that allow us to think that Now it won’t be so much.
First, public policy included ProCreAr, which partially subsidized the capital to 30,000 households, and Banco Nación, which was the main promoter of UVA credit, when it launched its line at the beginning of 2017. Then, society was different: the average salary in dollars It was about double the current one and poverty was 20 points lessr. The credits spoke to another society.
The mortgage market It is in its worst historical moment and waiting for a new stage that allows it to once again become the channel through which Argentines achieve home ownership on a massive scale. All this is incipient, but, if the macro is put in order, the room for improvement is almost infinite.
