The May inflation was 4.2%, marking the fifth consecutive month of slowdown. The Indec reported this Thursday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year reached 276.4% and that in the first five months of 2024 the price increase accumulated 71.9 percent. In this way, he continued downward trend after 25.5% in December, 20.6% in January, 13.2% in February, 11% in March and 8.8% in April.
The 4.2% increase in May is the lowest monthly record reported by Indec since January 2022 (3.9%). Core inflation, which excludes regulated and seasonal prices, was 3.7%, and was also the lowest measurement since the same date.
Besides, year-on-year inflation of 276.4% is the first to decline compared to the previous month from July 2023.
“With the data from May, the disinflation process deepened ongoing,” said the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, in your X account. “The 3-month moving average of the National CPI variation was at the lowest level since July 2023, and was almost 6 points lower than the 6-month moving average. This last indicator, which still incorporates the months where the main relative price adjustments occurred (exchange rate, goods and services under price controls and public service rates), is already the lowest since December,” he added.
As explained by Indec, the item with the greatest increase in May was Communication (8.2%), due to increases in telephone and Internet services: “They followed Education (7.6%), due to increases at all educational levels, and Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.7%) due to the increase in cigarettes.”
“The division with the highest incidence in all regions was Food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.8%), where the increases in Vegetables, tubers and legumes stood out; Milk, dairy products and eggs; and Oils, fats and butter,” added the statistical agency. The two divisions that recorded the smallest variations in May were Health (0.7%), due to reductions in prepaid medicine fees, and Housing, water, electricity and other fuels (2.5%). At the category level, Seasonal (7.2%) led the increase, followed by Regulated (4.0%) and the Core IPC (3.7%).
The Survey of Market Expectations (REM) forecast that inflation in May would be 5.2%. The rest of the private consulting firms also expected the figure to be between 4 and 5%. For example, EcoGo projected 4.9%, C&T Economic Advisors, 4.6%, and the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, 4.3%.
The projections of private consulting firms foresee an acceleration for June. It would be mainly due to the increase in gas, electricity, water, fuel and prepaid rates.
Buenos Aires inflation reached 4.4% in May and was the lowest monthly figure since February 2022. Meanwhile, the annual increase was 280.9% and in the first 5 months it accumulated an increase of 80.2%.
The main impulses came from increases in the following divisions: Food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.8%), Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (4.8%), Restaurants and hotels (5.7%) , Transportation (5.2%) and Information and communication (7.7%)”. In particular, “Goods registered an increase of 3.8% and Services of 4.8%.
According to the Directorate of Statistics and Censuses of the City of Buenos Aires, during May the variation of the IPCBA responded fundamentally to the increases in the following divisions: Food and non-alcoholic beverages, Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, Restaurants and hotels , Transportation and Information and communication, which together contributed 3.41 percentage points to the increase in the General Level.
In the case of food, “the main impulses came from Vegetables, tubers and legumes (24.2%), Milk, dairy products and eggs (4.5%), Bread and cereals (3.5%) and Meats and derivatives (2.5%)”.
In the area of “Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, the main impact was the increases in the values of rents and common expenses for housing. Next in importance was the drag left by the update of the residential rate for the water supply service.”
Meanwhile, “Restaurants and hotels rose 5.7% and had an impact of 0.59 pp, as a result of the increases in the prices of food prepared in restaurants, bars and eateries.”
In turn, Transportation registered an increase of 5.2%, “mainly due to the update in the value of the subway trip (as of May 17). Next in importance were increases in the prices of fuels and lubricants for vehicles used in the home, parking lots and tolls.” According to the organization, “the falls in air ticket prices, which contributed to removing pressure on this division.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that Argentine inflation will be 149% at the end of this year and 59% in December 2025. Meanwhile, the World Bank stated that it had to correct upward the average inflation rate in America Latin America by the three digits that the country will register, above the rest of its neighbors.
