Pending the sanction of the Bases Law, Argentine shares rise up to 8% abroad

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Waiting for the Chamber of Deputies to definitively sanction the Bases LawArgentine shares rise up to 8% abroad. Expectations are focused primarily on whether the Government will obtain the necessary votes to insist on tax reform, which includes changes to the income tax and personal property tax, which are key to consolidating the fiscal surplus in the coming months.

Although the porteño bag The day opened without any major movements, but by midday the upward trend was consolidated and is currently up 3.5%. On the main panel, Telecom Argentina shares stand out with an advance of 6.9%, followed by Aluar (+6.3%), Ternium (+6%) and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (+6%).

“The market will focus today on what happens in the Chamber of Deputies regarding the final approval of the Ley Bases and the fiscal package. The most important short-term initiative is this last one, especially in relation to whether the government will finally be able to maintain the original projects on the income tax and personal property. We say this because the official initiative would imply giving support to tax revenues this year.in a context in which the collection in real terms of taxes linked to activity is falling sharply given the current recession,” said Juan Manuel Franco, chief economist of the SBS Group.

This optimism is also reflected in the Argentine stocks that trade on Wall Street (ADR). The papers of Southern Gas Transporter lead the round, with a rise of 8.2%, followed by Telecom Argentina (+6.1%), Take off (+4.9%), the Supervielle Bank (+4.9%) and Central Port (+4.4%).

Instead, the bonuses Debt sovereigns operate with mixed variations. The Bonares show increases of 0.81% (AL30D) and falls of 0.49% (AL35D). Among the Globals, increases of 0.53% (GD29D) and declines of 2.08% (GD41D) are observed. Thus, the risk country It climbs 16 units and stands at 1,445 basis points (+1.12%).

Financial exchange rates opened the day higher, but reversed the trend after midday. Currently, the MEP dollar through the purchase and sale of bonds GD30 is sold at $1329.34, which represents a daily drop of $2.8 (-0.2%). Even so, a few days before the end of June it registered an increase of $113.40 (+9.3%) in the month, a percentage variation that is above the performance of a fixed term (2.9% monthly) and even of inflation estimated by private consultants (close to 5.5%).

He cash with settlement (CCL), The tool used to transfer greenbacks to a bank account outside Argentina, appears on the screens of the capital market $1339.94. It is $1.2 less than the previous close (-0.1%), although it has accumulated $92.50 so far this month (+7.4%).

Financial exchange rates are influenced by the settlements made by exporters, since they can channel 20% of their cash sales with liqui (and the remaining 80% to the official one). This adds supply to the market, and impacts prices.

“Beyond that The market is waiting for definitions today in Deputies about the fiscal package“Since the inclusion of the Personal Assets and Earnings reform is key to not compromising fiscal sustainability, we believe that there are factors that would be influencing the rise in financials to a greater extent,” they said from Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI).

On the one hand, analysts mentioned that The situation of the Central Bank’s reserves is worrying (BCRA), since in June it was difficult to accumulate foreign currency and raises some alarms about how the dynamic will continue in the third quarter of the year. On the other hand, they pointed out that the greater exchange rate gap, added to a low cost of leverage and the expectation of the end of the exchange rate restriction, It encouraged exporters to postpone liquidation.

“In other words, The financial dollar is only contained by the export flow, But at this rate in pesos, the settlement is postponed and the demand itself (considering the restrictions that apply to companies and institutions), the CCL rises,” they added.

Instead, today the blue dollar sells for $1355 in the caves and small trees that operate in the City porteña. It is $10 less than the previous close (-0.7%), after having led the rise in recent days, although in June it shot up $130 (+10.6%).

On the other hand, the official wholesale exchange rate is located at $912.50, equivalent to a micro-devaluation of $1.50 (+0.2%). Compared to the cash with liquidation, the gap exchange rate expanded to 47.8%.

THE NATION