Buenos Aires – The Low of the dollar in Argentina After the elimination of the bulk of the exchange rate and the implementation of a Flotation band scheme It is closely followed by the agro -export sector that, for the moment, It operates with caution, in the expectation of the next movements of the exchange rate. Given that scenario, Sector analysts consider that there are delays in liquidations against 2024, but they estimate that at the end of the campaign the volume will be located on the average or even slightly above.
“If one compares the businesses made at this point of the year, it is delayed with respect to previous campaigns, but also the producers will have to sell, because there are many maturities of input payments these days. What happens is that with the drop in the exchange rate, they do not want to sell in case some pesos improve the collection, ”said Lorena D’Angelo, an independent analyst of the grain market.
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However, he anticipated in dialogue with Bloomberg Line that “Export settlement will be given, mainly because the exporter is making sales abroad and is declaring those sales, which forces him to enter currencies”.
“The producer has already sold an important volume of anticipated business and they have to collect those businesses made. Although now it is selling to droppers because the exchange rate and the price in dollars are falling, the export settlement will arrive,” he said, although he clarified that “Maybe not to the expected rhythm”.
It should be noted that so far this year until March, inflation accumulates 8.57%, while the April consumer price index (CPI) is estimated between 3-4%. In the year until Tuesday, meanwhile, the upward variation of the official wholesale dollar was 6.97%.
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“Liquidation will be, mainly, in May and June, which are the most active monthswhich responds to that they are selling abroad, they have 30 days to liquidate the currencies and the producer is delivering merchandise in the ports. ”
Marianela de Emilio, Analyst and Extensionist of Markets and Business Management of the Agro said: “Before the exit of the stocks and the elimination of the dollar blend, What happened was a drop in dollars, mainly of soybeans, but not wheat and corn. ”
“The market reaction, initially, was to sell a lot on Monday 14 and Tuesday 15. Then, with Holy Week the liquidation was stopped”He said.
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“As for the amounts, There are no large differences regarding last year settlement. Only in old soy there is a decrease and it is not representative because it is the soy of the year of drought, then, obviously, it will be more quantity, ”he said.
“There are many agricultural inputs that were previously settled at the MEP exchange rate and, as a gap had a gap blendthere was an important lag, which came to 40%. Now, as everything is in the official wholesale exchange rate, it turns out that the difference is only the purchase-sale. The gap fell to 0.8%. If you look for the grain value, the least breath to sell in dollars is soybeans”, He explained.
However, he stressed that “This situation is more similar to the real one, to that of a normal and free market,” because “now you can get concrete accounts, without seeing what exchange rate they take the input.” “Everything is unified and puts clearer conditions to negotiate,” highlighted.
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Producers’ strategies
Javier Preciado Patiño, director of RIA Consultores, said: “The Government has already said that the competitiveness of the economic sectors will not be given by devaluation, but for the efficiency of each sector. We come from ten years or a little more in which the key was to wait for it to be devalued.”
“Today, if the producer sells, he no longer has a gap as it did, for example, with the management of Sergio Massa,” he compared and pointed to various scenarios for the producer: “Today you can sell the grain and stay in dollars. It can also be conservative, pocket and sell the minimum to wait to see what happens. Another option is to wait and another, sell, stay in pesos and do some style operation carry trade. In the case of a conservative producer, you can sell, pay the pending and if there are pesos, buy dollars. ”
Speaking to this medium, he estimated that in the short term the producers will opt for a mix In your choice, since Some will seek to “sell to pay debts and commitments”, while others “will try not to sell with a dollar down, to wait” a rebound in the exchange rate.
“We are currently 20% below the average in oil and soybean, but there are a few business days. We could be in the average. In the case of corn, we are above average,” calculation.
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In that sense, he predicted: “I do not think that a flood of dollars will happen in April, but we are not going to see that it will not be sold because the dollar will fall. I think we would end April in the average or slightly above.”
Milei’s warning to the field
In relation to the warning of President Javier Milei towards the field so that the liquidation of foreign exchange does not delay, since he will not renew the reduction of the retentions, D’Angelo said: “They do not believe much that, indeed, the export rights will rise again, but they are still two months until that statement is effective.”
Patiño, on the other hand, stressed that the decline in retentions occurred “For a financial need”but assured that “That window closes on July 1 and the producer has to know.”
