The price of gold has recently reached a historical maximum, exceeding $ 3,500 per ounce and capturing the attention of investors worldwide. However, a recent Nomura Securities report warns that this upward trend could face technical correction. The firm identifies three key indicators that suggest that the gold market could be entering an adjustment phase, possibly considerable magnitude.
1. Economic deceleration indicator: Fed capital expenditure index
One of the main macroeconomic indicators that lights the alarms is the “composed of the planned CAPEX of the Fed Regional Banks”, which has fallen below -4. This index, which adds survey data from different regional banks of the Federal Reserve, has a precise history when anticipating economic recessions: of six previous signals, five preceded an economic contraction.
Nomura emphasizes that when this index reaches such low levels, capital goods orders tend to fall abruptly, affecting sectors sensitive to the economy as those represented by the Russell 2000 index. In addition, historically, the price of gold has had poor performance in the two months after a similar fall in the index.
2. Anomalous capital trend: abrupt cooling after a massive entry
The second indicator comes from the analysis of the capital flow. Nomura has detected unusual behavior in the Al wife is spropes to be gold, tals)with a capital entrance that exceeded 95% of historical records in just two weeks, followed by a massive exit also above 95%.
This pattern – characterized by a frantic entry of “late investors or weak hands”, followed by steep sales – has happened only nine times in history, and in eight of them preceded a significant correction of the price of gold.
Particularly relevant is that this recent capital departure reached 1,270 million dollars in a single day, the largest retirement since 2011, coinciding with the last peak of a gold supercycle.
3. Price away from its long -term mobile average
Finally, the technical analysis provides a third warning signal. According to Nomura, the price of gold is currently 25% above its 200 -day mobile average, a level considered “excessively high.”
Historically, when gold has shown such a pronounced deviation of its long -term trend, it usually follows a noticeable correction within two months. This type of technical overextension indicates an overheated market, susceptible to a profit taking or abrupt adjustment.
While gold has proven to be a safe shelter in times of uncertainty, these three indicators suggest that the market could be at the gates of an important correction. Will gold be wrong and your bullish path will continue, or will they be right? We will see it in the next few days.
This content has been partially prepared with artificial intelligence, under an editorial criterion and does not constitute a recommendation or proposal for investment. The investment contains risks. Past profitability is not a guarantee of future profitability.
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