In the last wheel of the week, the gross reserves of the Central Bank cut a bearish streak of six days in a row as up $ 158 million with respect to the eve and exceed the barrier of the US $ 38,000 million.
Reservations reached an amount of US $ 38,155 million. In this way, the stock of reserves evidenced in the first week of May a decrease of US $ S773 million with respect to the end of April, when there were US $ 38,928 million in the BCRA coffers.
In the sixteenth wheel since the departure of the stocks, the Central Bank did not intervene in the official market of changes in a day in which the exchange rate in the wholesale segment ended at $ 1,136 for salewhich rose $ 22 with respect yesterday.
In turn, the A3500 exchange rate – which is an average of the values negotiated during the wheel – ended at $ 1,113.58, which descended $ 3.92 in relation to yesterday’s closure. For its part, The retail dollar in Banco Nación closed for sale at $ 1,140.
Reservations grow and exceed US $ 38,000 million: the reasons
The stock of gross reserves today cut a negative streak of six consecutive casualties during which the foreign currency bleeding of the BCRA coffers was US $ 1,282 million.
Today the reservations exhibited a Daily increase of US $ 158 million. BCRA sources indicated that the daily improvement is by Effect of the update of coins and gold contributions, and also for an exterior payment from which they did not provide details.
In this way, Gross reserves accumulate so far in May a decrease of US $ S773 million.
The consultant Outlier He pointed out that the deterioration of reserves at the start of May, “is mostly explained by interest payments to the IMF (for more than US $ 600 million), Bapreal payments (for US $ 167 million) and the fall of the International price of gold and yuan “.
“In the opposite direction they played the rise in foreign currency lace that derives from the evolution of private deposits in said currency in the local financial system,” he said.
In this way, gross reserves during the year accumulate an increase of US $ 8,543 million.
Given the government’s decision not to buy currencies while the exchange rate does not touch the floor of the flotation band – today around $ 990 – doubts arise about the possibility of complying with the goal of net reserves contemplated in the agreement with the IMF by mid -June when it plays the first review.
In that sense, analysts of Cohen S.A They explained that “after the agreement with the IMF, the net reserves left the negative land and closed April around US $ 5.5 billion, but for the fulfillment of the goal with the IMF itself, a methodology is used that excludes the organism’s disbursements and value the gold and other assets of the BCRA at January 2025 prices”
“Under that criterion, the Net reserves are still negative at approximately $ 7.2 billion. ”
Thus, according to the different private calculations To comply with the goal of the first review of the agreement with the IMF, it must be accumulated from June 13 between US $ 5,000 YU $ S5.5 billion.
In that sense, the director of the BCRA and an advisor to the Ministry of Economy, Federico Furiase said this week that the accumulation of reservations could also be made via capital, through foreign investment or treasure placements in pesos that could be acquired in dollars in tender.
The focus of the market is still put in the rhythm of liquidation of the agriculture to see if with a greater offer due to the income of the thick harvest the exchange rate touches the lower limit of the band and is able to accumulate reserves in a genuine way.
The operator Gustavo Quintanaof PR changes, indicated that On Thursday, cereal and oleaginous exporters entered US $ 138,867 million in the change market, amount less than US $ 185,277 million from the previous day.
In turn, the Rosario Stock Exchange specified that Today they entered the ports of the Great Rosario 3,330 trucks and the weekly accumulated amounts to 15,419 which implies a decrease of 30.5 % between weeks.
Fourth wheel without BCRA intervention
At the end of the fourth week after the departure of the stocks and debut of the flotation band, the BCRA remained without intervention in the exchange marketthat is, he did not buy or sell currencies.
The wholesale dollar today closed for sale at $ 1,136, which had a weekly drop of $ 34, but it still has a tour to play the band of the band that is currently in around $ 990
Quintana indicated that the operated volume today in him contained segment It was from U $ 402,948 million Faced with US $ 464.9 billion of the previous day, and in the future market, US $91 versus US $ 3,019 million yesterday was negotiated yesterday
Quintana commented that “In the wheel with less business volume of the week, the US currency operated with a mixed trend and as in recent days, with a marked amplitude between maximum and minimum operated. “
In this regard, the analyst said that the wheel started at levels of $ 1,118, and the currency showed a descending trend “throughout the first hour of operations that led her to play minimum at $ 1,105.50”.
“The demand for coverage was taking more impulse as the day passed, generating a recovery of prices that moved away from the minimums of the day. Already in the last half hour, the shortage of supply combined with higher purchase orders led the price to close at maximum $ 1,136”.
Quintana said that “without such an ostensible presence of the BCRA in the futures markets, as the suggested in previous days, the prices of the dollar tended to recover part of the loss week but without altering the negative sign of this period,” and said that “All expectations are now aimed at next week, which presents tenders of the treasure debt and the placement of the Bopreal, reasons why some analysts expect some impact on the price of the dollar, something that is yet to be seen. “
