Within the framework of the commemoration of the 70 years of the Colombian Chamber of Commerce (Amcham Colombia), its president María Claudia Lacouture presented the results of the first analysis of the Immediate effects of the 10 percent tariff that the United States imposed on Colombian exports.
As part of the study it was established that 82.7 percent of exports would have a limited impact and 40 percent represents high and medium-half opportunities to consolidate and expand the presence of Colombia in that market.
The limited impact of 10 percent tariff In 82.7 percent of the Colombian export basket responds to two main factors:
- 51 percent correspond to products excluded from the new tariff by decision of the United States government, when considering them strategic for their production.
- 31.7 percent faces the new 10 percent tariff, but part of a more favorable tariff base thanks to the commercial treaty with the United States, unlike other countries that face accumulated tariffs.
It is estimated that 51 percent of the exported value would not be affected in the short term (immediate) by the new 10 percent tariff, While the remaining 49 percent would be subject to tax, with the exception of aluminum and steel, which would face a 25 percent tariff on equal terms with their main competitors.
President of Amcham Colombia, María Claudia Lacouture. Photo:AmCham Colombia
Impact on GDP, employment and inflation
A second analysis, developed by Anif for Amcham Colombia, revealed that, if the 10 percent tariff is maintained for one or two years, Colombian exports to the United States could fall 8 percent, equivalent to 1,147 million dollars between 2025 and 2026.
This reduction would especially affect the non -energy mining sector, which represented 59.9 percent of the total exported to the United States in 2024.
As for economic growth, the report estimates a decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) from 2.8 to 2.7 percent in 2025, with an accumulated loss of 4.7 billion pesos in income during the first two years.
In addition, the loss of 15,000 jobs towards the end of 2026, Due to the lower demand for labor by exporting companies, and a fall of 0.1 percentage points in private investment.
In terms of inflation, If Colombia responded with similar tariffs on US products, it could increase to 4.4 percent in 2025, compared to 4.2 percent projected on the base stage.
This It would directly affect the prices of key supplies for the national industry, especially in sensitive sectors such as protein production (egg, chicken, pork, fish)since 70 percent of imported goods from the United States do not occur locally or are not produced in sufficient amounts to meet domestic demand.
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Photo:Carlos Arturo García M.
When presenting these analyzes, the president of Amcham Colombia, María Claudia Lacouture, emphasized The need that Colombia has to have a pragmatic, strategic and proactive commercial plan that can mitigate these effects, enhancing sectors with comparative advantages and consolidating Colombia as a reliable, agile and competitive supplier in the US market.
“We must take advantage of opportunities, but eliminate risks. A joint work between the government and the private sector is fundamental to exclude Colombia from the 10 percent tariff measure, Using the channels offered by the free Trade Agreement (FTA) in force with the United States, which allow flexibility to handle tensions without judicialization, “he said.
In addition, the president of Amcham Colombia said Expose commercial concerns, discuss the effects of the measures adopted and explore solutions without climbing the conflict.
“Colombia has a consolidated reputation as a reliable supplier, which allows it to maintain its competitiveness, even, in tension scenarios and, in many cases, open new opportunities against competitors with greater restrictions ”, María Claudia Lacouture added.
President of Amcham Colombia, María Claudia Lacouture. Photo:AmCham Colombia
Traffic light of the export basket opportunities
Amcham Colombia’s study also presented a traffic light, in which he identifies so much the sectors most exposed to the 10 percent tariff as those with the greatest growth potential Within the Colombian export basket.
6 percent of the products correspond to a high opportunity, Where Colombia has clear competitive advantages, either by tariff differentials, sustained growth in exports or weakness of key competitors:
- Electrical material (3 percent): Despite the 10 percent tariff facing Colombia, China – the main global supplier – faces a tariff of 145.7 percent.
- Textiles and clothing (2 percent): China, the main competitor, faces a 151.8 percent tariff.
- Sugars and confectionery products (1 percent): Competitors such as China have tariffs up to 157.8 percent, while Colombia experienced a 109.3 percent growth in 2025.
Photo:Juan B. Díaz. Archive time
34 percent are in the medium-high opportunity category, or that reflects favorable conditions with high potential to be strategically capitalized:
- Flowers and plants (13 percent): Colombia leads the market against competitors such as Ecuador (total tariff of 16.8 percent), Netherlands (16.8 percent) and Costa Rica with tariff equal to Colombia.
- Coffee (10 percent): Although Colombia faces a 10 percent tariff, its main competitors are also affected by similar or even higher tariffs,
- Aluminum and by -products (5 percent): Although it faces a 25 percent tariff, all main competitors also face it.
- Plastic (2 percent): Colombia grew 42.83 percent in 2025. China faces a 150.1 percent tariff.
- HEO PREPARATIONS AND PROCESSED FRUITS (1 percent): Colombia maintains favorable conditions against its main competitors, such as China and Türkiye who face tariffs of up to 152.9 percent and 17.9 percent, respectively.
Finally, 3 percent of the products have a low opportunity, a situation in which Colombia competes at a disadvantage against countries with tariff free access, Transformed products, high technical performance and specialization niches.
