Bloomberg Line – The fall that has been presenting birth in Colombia is a key challenge for pension and health systems in the country of face the future not to see its medium and long term economic growth compromised.
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The National survey of Quality of Life (ECV) is an instrument of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) that allows to collect information on different aspects of the socio -economic conditions of Colombian households.
Among the results of the survey, there is a particularly data worrying that from the National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF) they have indicated with Insistence: the continuous decrease in the average number of people per household.
“This trend reflects a deeper structural problem related to the fall in birth, phenomenon that It has serious implications for the fiscal and financial sustainability of the Colombian State, specifically as regards the pension and health system, ”said the entity.
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Between 2019 and 2024 there has been a sustained decrease in the average number of people per household in Colombia. Nationally, this figure went from 3.1 people in 2019 to 2.86 in 2024, which represents A 7.74% reduction in just five years.
This fall has been more pronounced in municipal headwaters, where the average number of people per household decreased from 3.08 to 2.82 in the same period, equivalent to a reduction of 8.44%.
In populated and rural centers dispersed, although the trend is also negative, the decrease has been less accelerated, going from 3.17 to 2.99 people per household, a drop of 5.68%.
According to data from the National Statistical Authority (DANE), births have fallen substantially, at a greater rhythm of the estimate in their population projections.
Between 2020 and 2024, it is estimated that 841 thousand children were born less than the forecast, a figure equivalent to the entire population of Cúcuta.
“Aging population that results from the fall in births, combined with the increase in the Life expectancy represents a significant risk for the potential growth of the Colombian economy “, Anif says. “As the population ages and there are not enough young people entering the workforce, the country’s productive capacity is compromised.”
Additionally, the entity points out, if the savings of the young population fails to compensate for the disappointment of major generations, Investment in capital could be reduced, negatively affecting economic growth.
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“Particularly alarming is the impact on the Colombian pension system,” says Anif. With the recent expansion of the cast regime for the entire population (up to 2.3 minimum wages), “Pressure on public finances would increase significantly in an increase in the pensioned population that is not compensated by a proportional increase in the economically active population, ”adds the entity. It maintains that this imbalance could put the sustainability of the system in the long term at risk.
The results of the DANE survey in 2024 confirm a worrying trend, according to Anif: “Colombian households are getting smaller, direct reflection of a birth birth rate.”
He adds that, if measures are not implemented that favor the inclusion of the elderly population in the activity productive and pension system parameters will be reconsidered to adapt them to this New demographic reality, “the country could face serious difficulties in financing its social commitments in the coming decades,” he concluded.
