Economic Agreement EU.-UCRANIA: War inflection point?

Much has changed from the chaotic meeting at the White House on February 28 between President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodimir Zelenski. After months of tensions, last Wednesday in Washington, the secretary of the US Treasury, Scott Besent, and the vice Ukrainian prime minister, Iulia Svydenko, signed an “economic association” that could mark a decisive turn in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

during weeks of negotiations – probably consolidated during the meeting between both leaders in the Vatican, on April 27 – an agreement was reached that can represent a strategic inflection point. Zelenski expects this new framework to serve as a basis for mutual understanding with Trump, aimed at reinforcing the protection of Ukraine against Moscow. For the former US president, the objective was to reach an agreement that avoids a financial collapse comparable to the cost of European support, while opening the door to an eventual intermediation with Russia.

The agreement establishes the creation of a joint investment fund for Ukrainian reconstruction. This fund will be financed with future income derived from the exploitation of the country’s natural resources, which will be shared between both nations. Washington especially points to critical mineral deposits, on an economic “win-win” strategy.

Although it is not the first bilateral agreement, this initiative is part of an unprecedented logic for the United States: an economic and safety commitment based on reciprocal interests, moving away from the help model without return that has prevailed in the past. Trump, when questioning the security guarantees provided in the first months of the year, opened the door to a new modality of dialogue, more contractual and less dependent on the traditional logic of alliances.

For Moscow, who thought he had weakened American support for Ukraine, this movement confirms that Washington maintains its commitment on the Ukrainian stage, although from another approach.

It should be remembered that on June 13, 2024, during the G7 Summit in Italy, both countries had already signed a bilateral security agreement. This Covenant established strategic cooperation for ten years, focused on strengthening Ukrainian defensive capacity, including training, technology transfer and institutional support. At that time, Ukraine still projected his future adhesion to NATO.

A year later, the political context has changed, and the question of adhesion is located in the center of a new dialogue between Washington and Moscow, in a particularly complex phase. Within that framework, the encounter between Trump and Zelenski in the Basilica of San Pedro, on the banks of Pope Francis’s funeral, has generated a new climate of approach. After the apparent break of February, everything indicates that there were discrete conversations that raided the way to this agreement.

The new economic pact represents a key impulse: it gives US companies a 50% participation in future projects for the exploitation of oil, gas, lithium and rare earths in Ukrainian territory. The profits will go to the purchase of American weapons by Ukraine, thus establishing a cooperation model based on shared economic interests.

In addition, the creation of United States – Ukraine Reconstruction Fund, an investment fund to accelerate Ukrainian economic recovery, taking advantage of the resources and technical knowledge of both nations was signed.

These agreements reflect a new framework in the relations between kyiv and Washington, which combines military support with economic cooperation under rare commercial logic in this type of alliances. Although Ukraine pays for his military aid, the approach is deeply political. kyiv is confident that, over time, Washington will fully include his position and the regional challenges derived from the Russian invasion initiated in February 2022. For his part, Donald Trump seeks to position himself as an indispensable mediator.

And the Europeans? They were not present at the bilateral encounter in the Vatican, although everything indicates that the essential terms of the agreement were defined there. However, security consequences directly affect Europe, involved both economically and militarily in the conflict. Security guarantees remain the axis of a tense situation, whose repercussions reach the international defense system.

French political scientist and international relations specialist.