A new earthquake at the level of oil and gas revenue was recorded on Monday morning when the raw barrel touched $ 58. After a few hours, as Digital alert reported, Brent stabilized in 59.73 with a value that also affects 60 percent of neuquinos income through the hydrocarbon industry. Between the last business day of March and yesterday, Monday, May 5, the fall is around $ 15 a barrel.
The organization that brings together the OPEC member countries and its allies led by Russia (OPEP+), agreed on the weekend an increase of 411,000 barrels per day, driven by a posture of Saudi Arabia. The adjustment is part of an acceleration of the decline of the cuts agreed during the pandemic that immediately drive an increase in production.
The announcement caused an immediate setback in international prices. The Brent came to quote $ 58.41 per barrel – since the $ 61.29 of the previous closure – although it then cut losses and closed at $ 60.23.
The impact was also felt at the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a reference for the US market, which touched a minimum of $ 55.30, a 5.1%drop. Finally, it closed at $ 56.57.
The negative impact also shakes the reserves of the Central Bank, as explained by the Federal Organization of Hydrocarbons Producing States (Offaphi). “For 2024, the energy complex generated exports for more than 10,400 million dollars, located as the second in importance behind agriculture. The fall in the international price calls into question the projection of export growth by 2025, which was based on the increase in unconventional production and on the adaptation of internal prices to the international market,” he said.
An earthquake planned in Neuquén
The declared commercial war of tariffs, unleashed in the world by the administration of Donald Trump and the announcement of the OPEC+, will impact the revenue of hydrocarbons that Neuquén and Argentina has. A tour of the analyzes that our columnist Walter Fagyas performs, demonstrate and can be read in the digital alert energy section.
But at the beginning of last month the government of Rolando Figueroa lit the alert lights in the face of a negative impact of this international panorama. The president said that “we have lost about 20% of the value of oil in recent times, that is 20% income,” and added that “we have to be aware that any variation that exists at the level of the price of oil and gas will impact on the province of Neuquén.”
A few days later, the Undersecretariat of Public Income From the province he ratified him with precise data: for royalties, more extraordinary production of production, the province of Neuquén received 144,049 million pesos (about $ 24 billion less than in February), which represents a Real fall of -10,8% In relation to March last year. Petroleum royalties left 104.4 billion (Real low of -9.9%, 38.9 nominal), while gas totaled 39,339 million pesoswhich implied a real fall of -12,6% (34,6 nominal).
For its part, the Secretary of Finance and Finance Carola PoglianoHe explained that the province observed carefully the economic scenario that has been altered by the tariffs imposed by the United States and the recent fall in the price of crude oil, which in April collapsed by 14%. “The province continues to analyze the level of expenses that it has to make the necessary adjustments,” said the official.
Neuquén attentive to the context
The head of the Treasury explained that during 2024 public accounts were ordered by the elimination of superfluous expenses, which allowed to sustain essential services such as education, health and security. “We managed to accommodate the province’s box in 2024 eliminating unnecessary expenses to finance essential areas, which allowed us to start 2025 in a very different scenario than we started last year,” Pogliano said. He also stressed that until March 30 the province maintained a fiscal surplus, although he warned that the end of April will depend on variables such as the price of oil, inflation and the evolution of the exchange rate in Argentina.
The strong link between hydrocarbon activity and public income causes Neuquén to be especially exposed to international market fluctuations. “If there is no reversal in the price it will affect us in our income, which settles us on the 15th of each month,” Pogliano warned.
Public works will not be affected by now
Despite the challenging panorama, the Secretary of the Treasury brought tranquility in terms of investments projected in infrastructure: “For now the public works included in the 2025 budget will not be affected, because in 2024 we had managed to balance the accounts, we had ended with a surplus, which allows us to have a few months of certain tranquility despite the context in which we are.”
From the provincial government, they emphasize that, although Neuquén today is in a better situation than at the beginning of management, it is key to maintain an austere and reactive spending policy. Therefore, they insist on constant monitoring of the global and local macroeconomic scenario to make decisions that guarantee financial stability.
