In that sense, What scenario does Peru face, which has as strategic partners both countries that have unleashed a Commercial war?
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The appointment, which initially aimed to reinforce bilateral ties in defense, became a platform where Hegseth clearly expressed the growing concern of Washington: “China represents a potential threat to peace and hemispheric security. We cannot ignore its covert expansion under the disguise of development. ”
For the political analyst Enzo Elguerawith this warning It reminds Peru -and not in private, but before public opinion -, on which side it should be to improve relationships with Of.u.
“Remembering, in addition, that we have enemies in common not only at the regional level where it points to China, but for example there is the need for the fight against organized crime and that the help of the North American country would be good. Feel the basis of bilateral negotiations including our political position and questions our opening to China”said a Management.
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USAthe analysts consulted, could see with suspicion Chinese investments in infrastructureports and telecommunications in South America, especially in countries such as Peru, where Chancay megaport operates.
“Its objective is not to help the region, but to establish economic and political control points”Hegseth warned.
To the internationalist, Ramiro Escobar, seems exaggerated by the United States, of the current White House, to say that China is a threat. “A threat is a country that wants to make war, which wants to invade a territory; it is not what the Asian country wants to do.”
“What China is doing is starting its geoeconomy policy, that is, the political company through the economy, investments, commercial treaties, or the policy of the strip and the route, which implies creating a land and sea network to make the Chinese international trade more fluid”he commented.
Escobar also argues that for Peru “This can be a reason for concern. ”
“Let’s say, for the Foreign Ministry, for the Peruvian state, in the sense that what the United States is saying is that if you have a greater closeness with China you can have problems. The Secretary of Defense has not said exactly, but that is what is in the end,” mentioned.
“If you have to contain the threat of China For the region, it is a way of the United States to tell Peru specifically, which has to pay more attention to the United States. And that – obviously – has to do with the presence of the port of Chancay. If the port of Chancay was not here, perhaps those words would not have pronounced. But, it is not any port, it is a key port for the world commercial strategy of China ”he added.
Rafael Zacnich, Manager of Economic Studies of Comexperúargues that China has gained great relevance in a context where the United States finances deteriorated. It puts an example: the fiscal deficit reached 7% of GDP, a “more raw reality if compared to advanced economies such as the United Kingdom, Canada or Japan.”
“In addition, the public debt of USA exceeded 120% of GDP. If that remains in time, you could harm your economy due to the high tax burden. That’s why Donald Trump It seeks to raise more with its commercial policy to impose more tariffs despite the consensus on the effects of protectionism: it ends pErjudicaning global economies, ”he said to Management. For Zacnich Trump “seeks allies” in his struggle to recover “world hegemony”regardless of the results of its aggressive policy: complications in the reduction of the interest rate and more inflation.
However, he recalled that Peru is not in a position to choose what type of investment requires, so he must protect his sovereignty and enforce his rule of law.
“The investment of whoever was, provided that it complies with the legislative, environmental, labor and benefit for workers, regardless of the activity in which it develops” is welcome, ”said.
In turn, Édgar Vásquez, director of the Adex Economics and Business Research Center, stressed that there is no advantage or different treatment of the investments of a certain country, whether China or the United States, so it asks for “taking cautiously” the statements of Donald Trump’s herald. He insisted that Peru must maintain a neutral posture since the real background between Washington and Beijing is purely political.
He stressed that China and the United States cover, together, about 40% of our exports and imports, respectively; And in this scenario of tariff war – where we are already applied a rate of 10% – only with the figures of April and May we can know firsthand which items are the most affected because “Just a month after the announcement of these measures (by Donald Trump)”.
“The same will depend on each sector. Some are more productive and competitive and even with this tariff they will continue to improve their efficiency levels to continue exporting to the United States. Among the most affected are export units such as micro and small businesses, since 10% will mean a substantial difference between continuing to export or withdraw from the markets”He said.
Vásquez said that some American buyers are asking exporters to assume 100% of costs; while some share the cost and others, transfer the additional cost to the consumer.
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According to Enzo Elguera, “China will be attentive to any movement from Peru after this meeting”.
“It will require a very well thought strategy that has historically characterized Peruvian diplomacy to respond to Chinese investments respecting contracts and agreements, but also without neglecting and aiming to improve relations with the United States, in a privileged position if Peru will handle them properly because it places us in the epicenter of the attention of the two countries not only more powerful in the world, but also the two most influential two Our country must respond to the height of the circumstances for the benefit of Peruvian strengthening ”he said.
In that line, Ramiro Escobar believe that “Peru must know how to manage with both countries intelligently and strategically. ”
He recalled that the Peruvian Foreign Minister during the APEC summit said that Peru knew how to handle these two powers at the same time.
“I think that has to be more than a phrase. It has to be a reality and has to occur in concrete terms. For example, trying to make the Chinese presence here through the port of Shanghai does not mean excessive consent and dependence, which determines the Chinese state that wants to do in Peru years it has not occurred “he explained.
Journalist with more than 5 years of experience in the coverage of economic situation and special reports in written and digital press.
