We are living a new panorama for global trade, caused by the imposition of USA tariffs on its commercial partners. In 2024 the United States exported to the world of the order of 2.08 billion USD, but imported 3.29 billion USD, that is, it had a commercial deficit of 1.2 billions of USD.
China exported the order of 3.58 billion USD and imported 2.59 billion USD, that is, it had a commercial surplus of 992,000 million USD. Mexico on the other hand exported 617.1 billion USD and imported USD 625,000 million and had a commercial deficit of USD 8.2 billion.
It is still early to anticipate the adverse effects of these tariff measures on world economy and commerce. Most expert opinions and economics specialists anticipate that they will be very negative.
China’s exports to the United States represent only approximately 15% of their total and will continue to consolidate as an economic and technological power (more than 40% of patent applications are from China, 15% of the United States, 12% Japan, 5% European Union, and 23% other countries).
The destination of the United States exports to Canada represents 18%, to Mexico the16% and only of the order of 8% is to China. Without a doubt, Mexico and Canada are the main commercial partners of the United States.
Because Mexican exports (80% are manufacturing) represent the order of 33% of GDP, and more than 90% go to the United States, Mexico pragmatic, has faced the challenge of negotiating with cold heads the commercial relationship with the United States in this difficult situation and in the renegotiation of the T-MEC of 2026 among the 3 countries.
Our country has proven to be a reliable commercial partner of the United States in the NAFTA of 1994 and the T-MEC of 2020. Great opportunities are opened for Mexico in the negotiation of the T-MEC of 2026 and for innovation, if we do things well. I state some of the most important:
- increase the national content of Mexico’s exports to the North American region. The United States will put a lot of pressure to raise the regional content in the rules of origin of the T-MEC. This opens a huge opportunity for the development of new products and services for the productive chains of the country and Mexican SMEs. The Federal government through the Secretaries of Economy and that of Science, Humanities, Technology and Innovation, has support and incentives to support SMEs to accelerately develop this task. It will help a lot the ability of our universities and research centers to support SMEs in this. The large companies established in Mexico must also support with national suppliers development programs urgently. The vital question is: how much of the 625 billion USD that we import could design and manufacture in Mexico?
- Attract foreign investments for the production of high -value added goods and services that generate high quality jobs for our young people who graduate from our higher education system and do not find good job opportunities today. We are losing our Mexican talent that has to emigrate to other countries in search of better opportunities. It should be encouraged investments in high -tech areas such as: software development and artificial intelligence; Biotechnology and pharmaceutical products; Nanotechnology and advanced materials; Renewable energies; Semiconductors and microelectronics; Robotics and automation; Machinery, specialized equipment and tools; Advanced water and environment solutions among other issues.
- Attract Mexico design, engineering and technology centers of foreign companies that already have manufacturing in Mexico. We have to promote the purpose of: “designed and manufactured in Mexico” and not only “maquilado or assembled in Mexico.” These new technology centers for the development of products, services and solutions, would generate very interesting opportunities for good employment. There is already a good number of cases in Mexico in Mexico City, Nuevo León, Jalisco, Querétaro and other cities, of these experiences of technology centers that testify to the high scientific and technological talent of our young Mexicans.
- Incorporate in the renegotiation of the T-MEC of 2026, a specific chapter of cooperation in higher education, science and technology to increase the exchanges between our universities and research centers and significantly strengthen the scientific and technological capacity of the North American region. Dual Postgraduate Programs, Postgraduate Scholarships and Joint Development of Research and Innovation Projects of Interest for the Region, would be great opportunities. Canada and Mexico can be allies of the United States to maintain the scientific and technological supremacy of North America against the power that China has achieved in recent decades. Mexico has to multiply almost everything by 10 to reach the standards of developed countries in 2 decades: national investment (public and private sector) in CTI of 0.3 to 3% of GDP; Years of schooling of the population aged 10 to 15; Higher education coverage from 42% to 75%; Number of scientists and technologists from 50 thousand to 500 thousand. If not prioritizing these issues, Mexico will lose the magnificent opportunity of its demographic bonus, young people will end and Mexico will be a country of aging people and lack of competences in 30 years.
- Diversification Mexican exports to other destinations. Mexico has an extensive network of treaties and commercial agreements with 46 countries. The diversification of exports to new destinations is urgent to reduce vulnerability and dependence with the North America region. Private Initiative and Government must promote an ambitious program for the development of new products and services and diversify other countries our exports. This must be a national priority.
- Increase support for entrepreneurs by the government and private sector to scientific and technological entrepreneurs to promote new high -value -added businesses based on science, technology and innovation, through supplier development programs and entrepreneurship and risk capital funds. Our culture of entrepreneurship and support funds to Mexican entrepreneurs are still incipient.
Today more than ever, before the new global commerce scenario, we must boost the “mindfacture” and not just manufacturing. Working as a government-business team-academic and research institutions We can achieve it!
Former director of Conacyt, former president of the Academy of Engineering; Director and innovation consultant.
