The PP expands its advantage over the PSOE and is located this month almost five points from the Socialists, according to the 40 dB barometer. For the SER and ‘El País’ chain. Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s match, which had been 33% for three months – the result he obtained in the July 23 elections – breaks that trend and traces.
In this delivery, it reaches 33.9% in vote estimation: 1.3 points more than last month and eight tenths more than in the last elections. The PSOE stays 4.7 points behind, a difference that was not recorded since November, when the PP achieved one of its best results.
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The recovery of the popular is explained, in part, by the recoil of Vox, which loses seven tenths and records its worst data since December, with 13.4%. Already in March, the ultra -right began to show signals of stagnation and this delivery confirms its downward trend. The descent coincides with the tariff war that Donald Trump, ideological reference of the Santiago Abascal party. The decisions of the US president have put in trouble the Spanish ultra -right, which has resisted criticizing the one who considers his ally.
This month, in addition, Vox’s leakage to the PP is triggered: almost 6 % of their voters are now inclined to the Feijóo party, three points more than the previous month. At the same time, the PP manages to contain losses in the opposite direction. If in April 10.5 % of its former voters left to Vox, they are now 6 %.
The PSOE, despite the recovery of the PP, barely yields two tenths compared to last month and stands at 29.3 % in vote estimation. They are almost two and a half points less than in the July 23 elections. Add, that he had suffered a significant fall in April, dates back slightly and reaches 5.4 %, three tenths more than in the previous barometer. We can get 3.1 %, right on the threshold necessary to achieve parliamentary representation. The party was over, which had shown signs of recovery last month, fall again: with 2.1 %, it would be outside the Congress of Deputies.
The survey – based on 2,000 online interviews – was held between April 24 and 27. That week, Pedro Sánchez announced an investment of more than 10.4 billion euros in defense to fulfill NATO’s commitment and reach 2% of GDP in military spending. The decision caused the criticisms of the left to the left of the PSOE, contrary to increasing the expenditure in defense, and the right because the government decided not to submit the announcement to the voting in the Congress. In addition, the SER chain revealed that Interior had formalized a contract to buy 15 million bullets from an Israeli company. The news caused a crisis in the coalition, forcing the president to demand in the interior to rectify and terminate the contract.
The improvement of the PP guarantees that the right block continues to be the one with the most votes. Together, PP and Vox reach 47.3% of the votes, a point more than last month. The left block, with PSOE, add and Podemos, brings together 37.8% of the votes, only one tenth less than in April. The distance between both blocks is, therefore, 9.5 points.
Vox, despite the setback, is still the game with the most faithful electorate: it retains 83.1% of its old voters. Although the PP now steps on the heels, with a loyalty of 82.6%. Among the main parties, the PSOE remains the least retention capacity, although in recent months it has managed to improve fidelity: 76.2% would vote again to the PSOE. There are also 6% of its voters that are debated between the white or zero vote, the highest percentage of among all parties. The electorate of Sumar, who attended a coalition of matches in the 23J elections, is increasingly fragmented: he manages to keep almost 50% of his old support (48.7%), 27.9% go to Podemos and 7.1%, to the PSOE.
After abstention, the white or null vote (30.3%), the ultra -right remains the main option for young people who are between 18 and 24 years old, but, in this delivery, the difference with the rest of the matches is minimal. 21.2% of young people in this age range would opt for Vox – almost three points less than last month – 19% would choose the PSOE ballot and 15.9% of the PP. The PSOE, in addition, is the first option in the rest of age stripes, in the male electorate (22.1%) and in the female (23.2%).
The 40 dB survey also offers results by autonomous communities. The barometer foresees this month that the PSOE wins the elections in Andalusia. According to their data, the Socialists, led by María Jesús Montero, would obtain 25% of the votes, just three tenths above the PP. The majority option, in any case, is abstention (25.9%). The PSOE would also be the most voted party in the Valencian Community (25.6%), with about five points ahead of the PP. The Popular Party maintains its hegemony in the Community of Madrid (30 %, more than eight points of the PSOE) and in Galicia (31.1 %). Socialists lead in Catalonia (19%) and Castilla y León (21.7%). In Catalonia, in addition, Vox gets more support than the PP: 13.6% compared to 12% of the popular.
