Despite the international prices in fall, the exchange rate appreciation and the proximity of the end of the temporary cut of withholdings, the fine campaign 2025/26 begins with good perspectives. But at the same time, the rhythm of marketing of soybeans, in full thick harvest, reaches its lowest level in 11 years.
In this context, the entrance of currencies in April through the cereal and oilseed complex was USD 2,524 million, which represented a 34% increase compared to USD 1,880 million March. “A good part of the currencies entered in April, are based on the large volume of available corn supply of the new harvest and soybeans,” said Ciara-Cec-the oil industry of the oil industry of the Argentine Republic and Center for Cereal Exporters. The accumulated of the first semester amounted to USD 8,549 million.
However, the Center for Agribusiness and Foods of the Universidad Austral said in a report that “Argentina faces a critical situation in full thick harvest.”
“Although soy collection advances at a good pace (about 12 percentage points per week), the accumulated delay is considerable: only 25% of the area were harvested, when at this time of the year it would be usual to be about 50%. This is added rain forecasts for the next few days, which could further delay the works and compromise the yield and the quality of the grain,” he warned.
“Marketing is also slow, and that generates logistics problems and funding. Dante RomanoResearcher at the Center for Studies.
The analyst explained that soy delivery commitments are in just 24% of the expected harvest, compared to a 31% historical average for this date. “It is the lowest rhythm of the last 11 years. If we analyze only businesses at the price, 11% of production has barely sold, against 16% average,” he added.
The reasons are linked to productive doubts, a slow harvest, and macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly on the exchange rate and export rights.
To the extent that the dollar approaches to the roof of the band, sales and businesses are going to accelerate, and when they go to the floor, they will cool a little (Precious Patiño)
The consultant Javier Preciado Patiño He said about it: “To the extent that the dollar approaches the band’s roof, sales and businesses are going to accelerate, and when they go to the floor, they will cool a little. It seems to me that the game will be so.”
For its part, The Economist of Crea Santiago Giraud He assured during the event that “although the unification of the exchange rate constitutes a key step for the ordering of relative prices, the appreciation of the weight combined with export rights represents a problem for the competitiveness of the agricultural sector.”
Regarding the prospects for the start of sowing Wheat and barleyfrom the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) said: “The conditions are very good this year, there was a great recovery of the profiles and we also had very pleasant surprises with the harvest in the nucleus region.”
“We are seeing a climate that would arrive for wheat with normal rains or above normal. It will be a very important campaign,” they said from the entity.
On the impact of the completion of the temporary cut of retentions in June, Preciado Patiño considered that in the case of wheat and barley, the reduction in the aliquot was two and a half points, so it is not significant and does not modify planting decisions. The movement of prices and costs influence more, which, according to the BCR, are similar to last year.
We are seeing a climate that would arrive for wheat with normal rains or above normal. It will be a very important campaign (BCR)
It should be remembered that the Government ordered at the end of January that the export rights to soybeans (bean) go from 33% to 26% and their derivatives from 31 to 24.5%, wheat from 12% to 9.5%, just like barley, corn and sorghum. Sunflower withholdings dropped from 7 to 5.5 percent.
Consulted by a possible replacement of crops, given the diminished international prices, for livestock activity, Preciado Patiño explained that with the technology available today it cannot be done. The feasible thing is to go from livestock to agriculture, not vice versa.
On the other hand, “we have a very expensive steer to export, with which we lose competitiveness. Refrigerators are complicated. In addition, due to the fall in consumption internally, there is a roof for prices. Livestock will be complicated,” he added.
