OPEC+ accelerates its offer and generates pressure in the crude oil market
Notipress.- El world oil market faces a new pressure phase after the announcement of the Organization of oil exporting countries and its allies (OPEC+), which decided to reintroduce 411,000 barrels per day (BPD) of raw to the market from June. With this decision, the poster will accumulate a total increase of 960,000 BPD between April and June, reversing 44% of the previously established cuts. The analysis of this scenario was provided to Turtress Why Elizundia, market research strategist Pepperstone.
During the start of the week, the prices of the oil They experienced a strong setback. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI)key reference in USAreached levels close to 57 dollars, after initially falling more than 5%. This figure represents a minimum not registered since approximately 2021, reflecting the magnitude of the market reaction to the news of OPEC+.
The official justification of the poster to increase its offer is based on a positive reading of market foundations and low levels of inventories. However, the analysis warns that inventories in the countries of the OECD They are only 2.5% below the average of five years. This data does not allow to talk about severe shortage, which partially questions the optimism transmitted by the producing organization.
Analysts highlight that the environment prior to the announcement already showed signs of fragility in the prices of the raw. Global commercial tensions and concerns about international economic performance had been configuring a bearish framework. The decision of OPEC+ To advance part of the offer, it amplified the perception of a possible imbalance between supply and demand.
Also, the analysis also highlights the role of Asiakey region for energy consumption. Although imports chinas They turned in March and April due to strategic purchases from Iran y Russiathe general behavior of maritime imports in Asia During the first four months of 2025 it was below the same period of 2024. This behavior reflects a more moderate demand environment to the poster, which increases the doubts of the market.
Another aspect that keeps operators in suspense is the evolution of commercial relations between USA y China. The ongoing negotiations generate expectations, although the risk of prolonged tariffs persists, which could continue to affect the economic activity of the main global importer of oil. According to the analysis of Pepperstoneeven a commercial agreement would not completely dissipate fears about the strength of demand.
From now on, market attention will continue to focus on the key indicators of industrial, manufacturing and global transport activity. Operators must evaluate whether the increase in production decided by OPEC+ It manages to balance with the evolution of world demand or if, on the contrary, the risks of a prolonged oversupply are deepened.
While the Petroleum Market It advances towards crucial weeks, the combination of an increasing supply and mixed signs on global demand keeps investors and operators on a maximum alert. The next price movements will depend not only on the market response to the additional offer, but also on the key economic indicators that will define the pulse of industrial and energy activity worldwide.
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