Everything is ready, and the afternoon of this Friday, June 14, will be the beginning of the long-awaited Euro 2024 held in Germany. From there, the 24 countries that make up said competition will fight to win the title and become European champions.
It is clear that each nation wants its country to win, or at least that is how it is in general terms, but there is a distance from wishes to reality and while it is true that anything can happen in these competitions There are always some clear favorites.
England, Germany, Portugal or even Spain could be considered great candidates, but until the day of the final we will not be able to know who the winner will be. What we can do is speculate, and not at random, but rather Zeileis’ group of researchers has used Artificial Intelligence to predict the winner of the Euro Cup.
To do this, they have used four advanced statistical models to find out who are the favorites to win this competition:
- The history of matches of each country in the last eight years
- Performance and expectations based on bets made in 28 betting houses
- The rating of each of the players of each team, both individually and collectively
- Other additional selection variables such as the GDP of the country of origin or the Champions League players that each nation has.
Added to all this is that the researchers carried out a statistical estimation with the Poisson method, and for this they took the Euro Cup matches from 2021 to 2023 and simulated all the matches in the group stage that we already know. on 100,000 occasions to give the results of the probability of victory for each selection.
The results gave a 19.2% chance of beating Francefollowed by England with 16.7% and Germany with 13.7%. Curiously, the AI trusts our team more than many Spaniards, and places us as the fourth candidates to win the competition with approximately 12% of the possibilities.
