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The political scientist Andrés Malamud is one of the speakers of the first panels of the Llao Llao Forum, the hermetic business summit that takes place until tomorrow in Bariloche. “The most controversial thing I plan to say“, he anticipated in a dialogue with the press covering the event, “is this: Milei is going to end up being a Peronist president“.
It is not the only spicy definition of the Olavarri analyst, who has been living in Portugal for years. “Trump being bad for US democracy but good for world peace“, shoot.
At the local level, he recognizes in Javier Milei a capacity to generate almost religious inspiration (“It’s Moses“, he defines it). And he dares to go even further with his analysis of current Argentine politics.”It is not necessary for Milei and Cristina Kirchner to sign an agreement: they have a tacit convergence of interests. They respect each other and are similar. Yours is win-win“, he proposes. He has no doubt where that leaves Mauricio Macri: “he is the real ham.”
Below is the summary of their arguments.
First thesis: Companion Milei.
“Argentina always had a class vote, not an ideological one. The same social class, depending on the decade, could be right or left. Those who voted for the Kirchners are those who voted for Menem. Milei could be a break from that. The cultural change, the transversal vote“, Explain.
However, Malamud suggests that, for him, Milei is going to make the middle class pay for the adjustment. “As everyone did, always“he points out.
“If this is so, it will harass the traditionally non-Peronist sector. If he is successful, he will be Menem: he will make the small group at the top and the popular sectors happy. End up being a Peronist president“, his reasoning.
Second thesis: Trump, the peacemaker
“When Milei meets with Biden officials and, the next day, goes to see Trump, it is not random. He is thinking about the United States that comes between October and January. She is doing politics seriously. Seeks international support from Trump“.
According to Melamud, Joe Biden has little room to prevail over Benjamin Netanyahu. Instead, go to donald trump with more strength and firmness to stand up to the Israeli premier. “If Trump wins, both wars are over. The one about Ukraine, because Trump is talking to Russia. And Gaza, because he cut off financing to Israel“he analyzes.
“Trump is bad for US democracy. But good for world peace“, he defines.”Trump is, essentially, an isolationist. He does not want a war, nor finance a war“he emphasizes.
Third thesis: the prophet Xavier
“It’s Moses. She promises to reach the Promised Land after 40 years in the desert. Convey conviction“, defines the President.
“In Latin America, presidents without legislative support are removed from office in a short time. That would be conventional. But the convention was also that Milei could not be president“, acknowledges the political scientist.
For him, the Libertarian has a quality rarely seen until now: “Ability to symbolically inspire a religious worldview, to endure the material pains of the present in pursuit of future benefit“.
“Until now, Milei maintains his popularity and his government did not generate material satisfaction, but rather symbolic expectations.“, distinguishes.”People know it’s wrong. But he thinks he’ll be better. He sold that expectation. With the malaria that exists, the reasons to think that we will be better is due to an unusual capacity to construct a perception of the future.“he continues.
“He promises adjustment. He boasts of expelling 30,000 public employees and stopping public works. That causes pain and people support it because it causes pain.“, is surprised. “That is only given by the religious worldview“he reflects.
“How long can that last?“, he is asked.
“Religions last thousands of years“, he responds quickly. Amplifies: “There is a demographic renewal in Argentina. Cultural change, in reality, is a demographic change. The 30% who voted for Milei are people who are willing to sacrifice because they didn’t know anything else. They are the Rappi boys. Nothing to lose. The 26% who voted for Patricia (Bullrich) want inflation to drop and the purchasing power of salaries to improve. That’s the middle class. But it is not what produces social outbreaks. A big pot doesn’t overthrow a government. The picket is what overturns a government“.
Malamud links this change with more clear phenomena in other countries in the region, such as the advance of evangelicals in Brazil. “Milei is someone religious. His religiosity is his own. All this transmits, inspires“, he describes. He points out that this inspiration is transmitted from exemplarity. Which is why – even though it is (well) justified by security – he believes that the decision of stop commercial flights to use again presidential fleet not be free. “It will have reputational costs. It was something that humanized him. It made it different, credible“.
Fourth thesis: the pact with CFK and Mauricio, the “ham”
At the regional level, the President’s business is keep Kirchnerism alive. Choose it as the true opposition and, if possible, attach the K label to everything that suits you. “Starting with Lousteau“says Malamud. “The crux of the balance is radicalism. If you remain as a bloc and lean to one side, that side is the one that wins: from a law to a request for impeachment“he reasons.
The political scientist, researcher of the University of Lisbontakes advantage of the controversy surrounding the nomination of Ariel Lijo as a Supreme Court judge to advance this point. “Milei doesn’t understand it, nor is she interested. Polls say that people don’t know who Lijo is. There is no need for an agreement between Milei and Cristina: they have a tacit convergence of interests“he says.
He defines the relationship between them as “win-win“.”They respect each other. They are alike. and they are needed“How does Mauricio Macri look in that dynamic?”Macri is a poor little ham“, paraphrases Victoria Villarruel. He ventures the worst scenario that the former President could face in the elections of 2025: “If Patricia Bullrich in the Capital and Karina Milei in the Province are in the ruling party, the PRO cannot present candidates. If you’re lucky, you’ll put Guillermo Dietrich on a list“.
World in entropy
Malamud was the only speaker on the panel “Global vision of Argentina”, one of the first talks on Thursday at the Llao Llao Forum. More than 120 businessmenamong them, several owners of Argentinathey followed him attentively.
The political scientist described that, currently, the world is in transition. “There is a transition of power: the United States declines, China emerges. Another interpretation is that it is a world in entropy, which is a degree of disorganization of matter. It is not a world in which there are competing rules, but one in which there are no rules. Every time someone defends the West, deep down, he is defending this entropic world“.
“Cuba, for example, never promised to adhere to democracy. Nobody has the right to force her to be democratic because she didn’t sign that. Neither does China. So, in that, it does not violate any laws. Venezuela, on the other hand, s. When the West wants to impose democracy, it violates international law. When you defend the West, you are promoting entropy“, his diagnosis.
Distinguishes: in international law, human rights are a concrete value; the form of government that a country adopts, no. Nobody requires it to, for example, access the UN. “Westerners believe they defend a rules-based world. But you cannot impose values on another. This has consequences: if you want to impose on others what they do not want, you are generating conflicts that can lead to wars.“.
At the domestic level, he assures Argentina has credit. “There is money in the world for the country. Credits for works, from organizations such as the World Bank, IDB and Andean Development Corporation. If Milei does not want to do public works, he could enable the provinces to do so“He indicates. Of course that will depend on political negotiation.”Today, the President seeks to suffocate the governors so that they give him what he wants“.
Malamud finds Milei to be a character whose vision of the world “fascinates” him, which does not mean that he shares it. “He says brutal things. But he is more alive than he seems. “In what?” He will do two things that (Jair) Bolsonaro did by promising the opposite: not to move the embassy to Jerusalem and not to break with China“, he risks.
If Milei broke up with China, it won’t be free: “You can pay the cost with coin swap and dams. It will show that you are not as alive as you think: that is a concrete material cost“In any case, there are indications that this will not happen. The Santa Cruz damsfor example, are at 75% of work and important managers, such as Alberto Kohan, they mediate so that the Asian investor does not leave. “The Menemistas who support Milei want to help him so that he does not make those mistakes“, says.
Another test of rationality and pragmatism was recent: the truckers joint venture in its final version. “It’s good for both of us. (Hugo) Moyano lowered the claim. But there is a fixed sum. He sets the example that Milei needs but also for the other side. The world is full of conflicts. Argentina does not need to have an internal one. Milei feeds on conflict. But, in this case, rationality prevails: each one took something“.
