This week, the outgoing head of the US Indo-Pacific Command said Beijing was continuing to plow resources into its military despite economic turmoil caused by a real estate crisis and a slump in US-China trade.
“Say goodbye to a failing economy, there is a conscious decision to fund military capability,” Admiral John Aquilino told a naval conference in Japan. “That’s concerning to me.”
What is clear, Western experts and officials say, is that the government in Beijing has learned multiple lessons from Russia’s troubled experience in Ukraine.
These include the desirability of managing any military takeover extremely quickly, presenting the outside world – and particularly the US – with a lightning change of government in Taiwan’s capital Taipei before anyone can truly react.
Communications
Over the last year, US President Joe Biden and counterpart Xi have held one relatively cordial meeting in California in November and at least one follow-on bilateral telephone call, while military officials have held direct meetings aimed at finding ways to ensure communication and reduce tensions in any future crisis.
So far, neither Washington nor other Western states have moved to significantly cut China off from raw materials, although the US has increasingly worked to strip Beijing of access to high-tech microchips, particularly those that could be used for weapons.
European states remain publicly divided over their approaches to Beijing, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visiting China this month in what appeared to be an effort to maintain ongoing trade links.
German officials say Scholz pressed Chinese counterparts including Xi on multiple issues including human rights and Beijing’s support for Russia in Ukraine.
More broadly, however, Western-Chinese relations continue to deteriorate – and not just over Taiwan, which Beijing views as a rogue province with which it vows to pursue “reunification” either peacefully or by force.
This month, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told fellow NATO foreign ministers that ever more Chinese components were being found inside Russian weapons in Ukraine. Beijing’s support for Moscow, Blinken said, was approaching the threshold of delivering lethal weapons systems.
This week also saw two rounds of arrests in Europe linked to alleged espionage by China, including two parliamentary investigators in Britain and three Germans working on defense programs. China’s embassies in both countries denied involvement in spying.
Having initially recovered following the Covid pandemic, US-Chinese trade nosedived in 2023 and so far shows little signs of recovery.
Officials in both the US and Europe also say they are considering introducing trade tariffs on Chinese production of electric vehicles in particular, accusing Beijing of deliberate overproduction in a way that threatens US and European rivals.
Should such tariffs be introduced, relations would almost certainly deteriorate further.
China’s government buyers have never been one to turn down a bargain, frequently building up their national stockpiles when short-term prices fall. Newly imposed Western sanctions on Russian nickel, aluminum and copper that entered force this month are seen as likely to spur further Chinese buying.
When it comes to lithium, a vital component in many types of batteries, Beijing has bought up not just stock but also processing facilities and mines, including overseas.
