Allan Lichtman, professor at the American University in Washington DC
Photo: AP – Seth Perlman
This electoral year will be the most important in this decade, since half of the world’s population will have elections that will define the future of the world. We are launching this space to talk about the most complex of all: those of the United States. We want you to be as informed as possible, but we know you don’t have much time. Therefore, we summarize the keys of the week in 538 words.
The “Nostradamus” of American politics spoke
As of this Monday, we officially have six months left until the elections in the United States. At this point, the campaign is still, as one might say colloquially, “very buggy.” Without having seen the national conventions of both parties – and the direction that Democrats and Republicans are going to take from them – the campaigns on the ground, the debates between candidates and the outcome of the criminal trials against Donald Trump, it is very daring for Someone comes forward today with a prediction of the winner. Nobody knows what is going to happen. Except, perhaps, for Allan Lichtman.
Professor Lichtman is a renowned political scientist, historian and doctor of philosophy who a couple of years ago earned the nickname “the Nostradamus of elections.” And in 2016, he was one of the few analysts who predicted a victory for Trump over the then Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. He has guessed nine of the last 10 presidential election results in his country. He insists that his model did not fail: what kept him from a perfect streak was the “robbery” that Al Gore suffered in the 2000 elections.
As it does?
Lichtman, contrary to other analysts like Steve Kornacki who use mathematical models about the current context, designed a model of 13 true and false questions to decide if the ruling party was going to continue in the White House based on what history said. The questions are constructed from a thorough investigation of election results since 1860. If six or more of the questions turn out to be false, this would mean that there would be a change of party.
This week, the professor launched his forecast, taking into account current conditions, and stated that: “Many things would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose.” What does the model say about him? Let’s see if Biden abides by the six-question rule for now.
We see that there are already at least four negative responses. The rest will be under study until the elections are held.
- Party mandate: the ruling party holds more seats in the House now, compared to previous midterm elections. ❌
- Contest: there is no serious competition to obtain the nomination within his party. ✅
- Third parties: There is no independent third party in the campaign. ✅
- Ownership: the candidate of the incumbent party is the incumbent president. ✅
- Short-term economy: there is no recession during the election campaign.
