And where Sir Keir has problems retaining the Muslim vote, Mr Sunak has his own difficulties with voters defecting to Reform UK, which came within 118 votes of beating the Tories into second place in the Blackpool South by-election.
It was this result – with Labor winning the seat back from the Tories with a 26 per cent swing – that Sir Keir hailed as “seismic”, although the Conservatives will point out that the tiny turnout of just 32.5 per cent, and the fact that They spent just 11 per cent of their allowable budget defending the seat, it will make for a different picture when the general election happens.
Conservative supporters looking for other positives will note that the Liberal Democrats, who had hoped to take councils from them in traditional Tory heartlands, have so far failed to make much of an impact. For example Hart in Hampshire, which was a key Lib Dem target, remains in no overall control.
There is still a reluctance from most Tory MPs to change leader before the election, and a snap poll by the influential Conservative Home website showed that six in 10 Tory members think the party should stick with Mr Sunak no matter what the final results turn out to be.
Even if Mr Sunak sees off any talk of a coup, the timing of the election could be determined by these results.
Conservative insiders have confirmed that plans for a July election are in place should Mr Sunak face a confidence vote in Parliament.
If Tory rebels try to force such a vote, Mr Sunak could make a decision to go to the polls instead of facing the vote by MPs.
Only then will we know whether all the talk of a Labor landslide was fantasy or reality.
