The US dollar is surging against the Indian rupee in 2024 making the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) nervous. The rupee fell to a low of 83.63 in April last month but briefly recovered in May reaching 83.43. Despite the rebound, the global macroeconomic factors and a stronger US dollar could make the rupee fall to new lows in 2024.
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All local currencies dipped against the US dollar this year including the Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, and the Pound Sterling. In addition, out of the 23 top currencies in Asia, the US dollar outperformed 22 of them in the last five months. The Indian rupee is on the back foot vs the US dollar and could shed more in the coming months.
The conflict in the Middle East between Iran, Israel, and Palestine is what’s driving the US dollar up. The DXY index, which measures the performance of the USD shows the currency hitting 105.50 on Monday. The USD to INR is at 83.51 on Monday and the local currency remains at risk of dipping further.
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US Dollar vs Indian Rupee: 2024 Price Prediction for USD/INR
The Indian rupee is forecast to fall to 84.76 by the end of the year in 2024 against the US dollar. That’s a dip of approximately 1.5% in the next coming months indicating a weaker INR. According to a prediction from the AI firm CoinCodex, the INR could begin its dip against the USD from Q3 of 2024.
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Currently, the sentiment in the USD/INR market remains bullish. The 14-day RSI reading is 47.46, suggesting neutral conditions. In the last 30 days, the volatility of the USD to USD has been 0.13%. The current USD to INR exchange rate is above the 50-day SMA, which is currently sitting at ₹ 83.35. The current rate is above the 200-day simple moving average, which is positioned at ₹ 83.17.
