Park Record file photo by David Jackson
Another wet winter could help dampen Utah’s fire season — at least at the start.
The wildfire season typically runs between July 1 and Oct. 1, but it could be delayed until later this summer because of above-average precipitation throughout the state.
However, climate experts are expecting higher-than-normal temperatures, which could lead to increased fire activity toward the end of the season.
“The three-month outlook with the Great Basin It’s kind of about a normal fire season. That means, yes, we’ll probably see some fires. …Probably not until later,” said Summit County Fire Warden Bryce Boyer.
The summer monsoonal season from July and September will be a key factor in determining future fire danger.
Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center anticipate a shift between the El Niño pattern to a La Niña at some point during the summer. Officials said the transition can bring uncertainty with the weather.
A NOAA outlook for May, June and July predicts hotter temperatures across much of the United States, including Utah, as well as a chance of below-normal precipitation in the West.
Climate experts said there’s an 85% chance the El Niño will transition to neutral by June. There’s a 60% chance La Niña will develop between June and August.
Snow, rain and runoff from winter help prevent grass from burning but a hot, dry summer could quickly reverse that effect by allowing fuel sources to become dehydrated.
“They’re leaning toward the fact that it’ll probably be drier,” Boyer said, “which means we could see more of an active later summer in August, September, early October, or maybe into the early part of November, where we could see elevated fire danger at that point. But it’s kind of still in the air for how it’s actually going to go.”
The fire risk and the likelihood of natural starts increase during periods of limited precipitation. For example, dry lightning caused several fires in Summit County last year.
The end of August and September is the most active time for fires in Summit County. Larger blazes such as the Rockport Fire in 2013 and the Parleys Canyon Fire in 2021 have often occurred in late summer.
Boyer speculated this fire season will be comparable to the previous one as long as there’s rainfall. The amount of precipitation this summer will likely depend on the shift in climate systems.
“Last year, we stayed pretty wet most of the year through it. “We stayed pretty much average or below average for the fire season,” he explained. “This year, they’re saying we’re going to be at average or maybe a little above as we get into the later months.”
Fire danger remains low due to spring storm activity. However, Boyer emphasized the importance of maintaining good fire sense — especially before there’s heightened risk.
Wildfire mitigation efforts such as prescribed burns have been underway to help improve forest health and make the community more wildfire resistant. Open burn season lasts through May 31. Both unincorporated and incorporated burns require a permit. Burn permits are required in unincorporated areas starting June 1.
Residents are also encouraged to sign up for the Summit County emergency alert system to stay updated on information regarding fire danger or restrictions. Text SCFIREINFO to 888777 for text alerts on fire conditions, prescribed burns and active fire.
