Murphy’s Law says that if something can go wrong, it will go wrong. And that is without a doubt what happened with the energy planning carried out by the national government to the point that As of this morning, there are several industries in the country that, despite having firm natural gas supply contracts, that is, non-interruptible, are being affected to prevent the lack of gas from escalating and putting the country’s electrical service at risk.
The situation was made known by Clarín, and as confirmed by this medium from various sources in the sector, From today to morning the conditions of the gas service became more complex even more. Yesterday, at the request of the National Gas Regulatory Entity (Enargas), the sector had entered the “Pre-Emergency” phase.
Specifically, the Enargas controller, Carlos Casares, requested in a note from the country’s main transporters and distributors such as TGN, TGS, Metrogas, Naturgy and Camuzzi Gas del Sur, that they had to proceed to the cutting of interruptible type contractsthat is, those that precisely have the alternative of cutting off supply in emergency cases like the current one.
This led to service interruption in nearly 200 compressed natural gas (CNG) service stations in the country and also to industries who had agreed to that type of contracts.
But the situation escalated todayand companies in the sector warned that Some firm contracts in the industrial sector were also reduced to what is called “technical operating minimums.”which is in short, the minimum provision so that these industries do not have to turn off their boilers and close.
In the region, it was learned that There are 15 large industries affected due to this reduction in the offices that they contemplate from textile factories, ceramics, logging complexes, juice factories, plastics and wood factories in Neuquén, Chubut and Tierra del Fuego.
Poor planning and three unforeseen factors
The underlying reason for this crisis is a poor planning of the demand made by the national government for this first week of winter cold in which there were also three unforeseen factors that ended up exacerbating the situation.
Calculations prepared by the national government They started by prioritizing savings over security and this is why, in light of the current situation, it is clear that they were below what was necessary. The thing is The usual thing for May is that there are six shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to supply the country, but this year the planning left only three shipments, half.
It was then that the entry of a very early polar wave It messed up all the calculations. This was the first unforeseen factor and the most serious of the entire picture since it depressed temperatures to the lowest level recorded in the last 8 years for this height of May.
With the cold installed in the central region of the country, the residential consumption skyrocketed and it went to levels worthy of July more than May, jumping from 50 to 77 million cubic meters per day this week.
There it hit the second government miscalculation: the availability of diesel and fuel oil for thermal power plants. Cammesa did not check enough quantities to prioritize the use of the cheapest gas, but again cheap will be expensive, since On Tuesday the entity had to launch a last-minute tender to obtain 12 shipments that will demand close to 600 million dollarswhile Enarsa is also rushing to contract another 10 more LNG shipments to add to the 20 that had been tendered.
But as mentioned there are three unforeseen factors that ended up disorienting the sector and leading to the reduction of gas to industries. Since on the one hand, a incident at the Embalse nuclear power plant last Monday the 20th when a heavy water spill was detected.
This forced a stoppage at the nuclear power plant thatwas left out of service until last night, thus recharging the need for electrical energy from thermal power plants. And a classic way to dribble local crises is to appeal to the import of electrical energy from Brazil, something that could not be done either.
This is the third unforeseen event that coincides in the week, Since the Floods registered in the neighboring country made it impossible to have greater imports and they joined the request for cuts in gas deliveries to industries to prioritize thermal generation.
A complex scenario, which promises to last throughout the weekend, since it is only towards early Tuesday morning that the polar wave is expected to recede definitively.
