Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in North Korea on Tuesdaywhere he is expected to sign a treaty describing the Moscow’s expanded cooperation with Pyongyangaccording to Russian state media.
The Russian president, making his first visit to North Korea in 24 years, landed in Pyongyang, where several of the capital’s main streets were adorned with portraits of Putin and the Russian flag.
Putin has decided to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during his two-day visit, Russian news agency TASS reported.
The report did not provide details of the document, although the agency previously quoted a Putin foreign policy adviser as saying it would likely cover defense matters.
Earlier on Tuesday, Putin promised to work with North Korea to counteract sanctions as both countries expand their “multifaceted partnership,” according to a letter published in North Korean state media.
In the letter, Putin said the two countries would develop trade mechanisms “not controlled by the West” and would “jointly oppose illegitimate unilateral restrictions.”
Russia has long supported North Korea. Although ties have sometimes been rocky, both countries recently found more reasons to work together, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
U.S. officials say North Korea has provided Russia with 11,000 containers of ammunition, as well as ballistic missiles, for use on the Ukrainian battlefield. Both North Korea and Russia deny such arms deals even though a growing number of independent observers have documented the use of North Korean weapons against Ukrainian forces.
“Moscow and Pyongyang are likely to continue denying violations of international law, but they have notably moved from hiding their illicit activities to flaunting their cooperation,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Defense ties
U.S. officials have expressed concern that Russia could provide advanced weapons or other aid related to North Korea’s nuclear program.
Such concerns intensified last September when Kim inspected numerous advanced Russian weapons while touring several military sites in eastern Russia, including a modern space launch facility.
Although North Korea’s latest satellite launches showed signs of Russian assistance, analysts debate how far defense cooperation would go, noting that Russia does not typically share its most advanced military technology.
“These states do not share the institutions and values of long-standing alliances; they are only loosely united by resistance to the application of international laws and norms,” Easley said.
History of the treaties
Analysts are carefully assessing the language of any new treaty signed by Putin and Kim.
Today, Russia has comprehensive strategic partnerships with countries such as Vietnam, Mongolia, and some Central Asian nations.
While these documents form the basis of Russia’s “highest type of interstate relations,” they do not amount to treaties of alliance, noted former Russian diplomat Georgy Toloraya.
“I don’t think this treaty will include a clause that directly requires military assistance, but it will certainly give room to imagine a situation in which this could be provided,” he said in an interview with the VOA.
In 1961, North Korea and the Soviet Union signed a treaty of friendship and mutual assistance that included a provision for automatic military intervention in emergency situations.
That agreement was abolished after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The two countries signed a new treaty in 2000, but it focused on economic rather than military issues.
According to Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov, the treaty Kim and Putin are negotiating would replace all other bilateral treaties.
Obstacles
If Putin’s letter is any indication, his visit is also likely to focus on expanding economic ties, including by intensifying exchanges related to education, culture and tourism.
However, this plan faces obstacles due to United Nations Security Council resolutions that prohibit a wide range of economic engagements with North Korea.
While Russia says it no longer supports UN sanctions against North Korea, it has not formally announced that it will stop complying with them.
Instead, Russia may look for what it sees as loopholes that facilitate cooperation even in areas that are subject to U.N. sanctions, such as North Korean workers earning income abroad.
For example, North Korean IT specialists could work remotely from their home country without technically receiving income abroad, said Toloraya, a former member of the UN Panel of Experts, which was supposed to monitor the implementation of sanctions. to North Korea.
Earlier this year, Russia effectively abolished the UN panel, one of its boldest steps to unilaterally downgrade the UN sanctions regime it once supported.
What North Korea wants
For Kim, Putin’s visit is intended to provide a boost to domestic legitimacy, especially amid North Korea’s increasingly public friction with its main economic backer, China, said Kim Gunn, who earlier this year resigned as South Korea’s top nuclear envoy.
“North Koreans are nervous about that, because their economy is 99 percent dependent on China,” said Kim, who is now a member of South Korea’s National Assembly. “Kim Jong Un’s response is to say, ‘Don’t worry, we still have Russia.’
In the lawmaker’s view, Kim Jong Un is also likely hoping that Putin’s visit will give him leverage with Chinese President Xi Jinping, creating a situation in which both Russia and China compete for North Korea’s favor.
But, Kim Gunn added, the new relationship between Russia and North Korea is likely a “marriage of convenience,” rather than a restoration of Soviet-era ties.
“Russia is not the former Soviet Union,” he said. “And Russia is at war in Ukraine, they are pouring all their energy into this war. There is not much room for Russia to do anything with North Korea.”
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