(From Washington, United States) Next June 27, Joe Biden and donald trump They will meet face to face Atlanta Georgia) to star in a presidential debate that can define the electoral campaign heading to the elections on November 5. There is no precedent in the history of the United States – since Kennedy-Nixon to Bush-Clinton– that can equate the political tension that is already causing the political battle that the President of the States and his immediate predecessor in the studies of the CNN.
The candidate of Democratic party and his republican opponent define an agenda that will include the value of democracy, the economic situation, The weight of the age to occupy the White House, the war in Ukraine, the crisis in the Middle Eastundocumented immigration that arrives from Mexico and China’s global offensive.
The dialectical line of the presidential debate – aside from all the issues that will be discussed – has an essential argument confrontation: Biden will argue that Trump’s victory is a clear and imminent threat against the rule of law, while Trump will affirm that Biden’s age undermines his ability to lead the United States.
With this scenario already assumed, The president will describe the most notable indicators of his economic program -low inflation, stable unemployment and GDP growth-, while the former president will argue that the economy is in crisis and that his governing platform will make the United States Return to your path of constant growth.
The official campaign committee is debating whether the assessment of the economy It has to be a central axis of the electoral proposal, in addition to the vindication of democracy as a contrasting value. Or if, on the contrary, the use of the economic situation can expel independent voters and facilitate criticism from Trump and his allies.
The debate in the Democratic camp has not been settledand Biden will make the political decision in the next few hours to arrive with a defined strategy for the battle that will be waged against Trump. In terms of the historic campaign he led Bill Clinton against George Bush: it’s just him triumph of democracy as an electoral argument when the Soviet Union had imploded, or is it the economy (“idiot”) that worried to independent voters in 1992.
In this discursive framework, Biden will also take advantage of his time to send direct messages to the African-American electorate and Hispanic voters. In the 2020 elections, the exit polls assured that Trump had obtained 12 percent of African American votes, whereas now that vote that was majority Democratic grew up to 20 percent in favor of the Republicans.
If this trend will be confirmed, Biden would reduce his electoral margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which They are key states to offset Trump’s advantage in rural districts.
The latest polls assure that Biden and Trump They are tied in the Latino vote, who has usually preferred Democratic candidates. In 2020, for example, Biden won in this electoral segment with 65 percent in favor against 32 percent who supported Trump.
The abrupt drop in the Hispanic vote puts the Democratic victory in check in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Snowfall. An electoral panorama that explains Biden’s latest announcements linked to the Latin community, and the advertising that was broadcast at the beginning of the match between Argentina and Canada for the Copa América, where Trump is criticized in times of Pandemic and the official candidate is praised.
trump appeared behind in campaign fundraising compared to the millions of dollars that Biden had raised since the beginning of the year. But that trend was reversed in the last two months, and in the campaign committees of both parties it is assumed that the Republican candidate has consolidated his electoral speech and that allows you more proselytizing funds together.
“What I want to do and what I will do is that if you graduate from a university, I think you should automatically obtain, as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country”Trump said in a podcast. This electoral declaration, which was later qualified by his well-known political positions, exhibits a change in discourse that points to increase votes that they already have among African Americans and Hispanics.
This speech will appear in the Atlanta debate. Trump will show his intention to support Latino families and African Americans who study versus the Latino migrants waiting to cross the Rio Grande to begin their American dream.
In addition to expressing some empathy with an electorate that always questioned his origin and arrival in the United States, Trump sharpens his political speech to show that you can act as a stable leaderdespite the ruling against prepare your accounting entries in 2016.
Chris LaCivita it’s a electoral advisor key member of Trump’s campaign committee. This ex-Marine, well known in Washington, created the concept of Swift Boating during George W. Bush’s presidential campaign in 2004.
During that campaign, John Kerry was a candidate for president for the Democratic party and was 4 to 7 points above Bush, who could not close the gap. Kerry was a decorated Vietnam veteran, while the Republican president – who was up for re-election – had avoided fight the Vietcong for his formal position in the Texas Air National Guard.
A week after the Democratic Convention, a group of veterans who had served in Vietnam using speedboats (Swift Boats) They accused Kerry of lying about your service record. Kerry lost the advantage, Bush won re-election and that campaign move is now known as Swift Boating.
The accusation was a lie: Kerry was a war hero who came under the electoral fire of LaCivita, now Trump’s top campaign advisor.
Together with LaCivita it aligns Susie Wileswhich coordinates an electoral working group that takes advantage of the advice of senators J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio and Eric Schmitt. Trump has no routine, he organizes meetings at his Mar o Lago mansion or at the Republican National Committee in DC, and he has not yet accepted a debate script and confront a politician to represent Biden.
In these conclaves, the Republican candidate adjusts his message about the economythe situation in the southern border from United States, the war in ukrainethe crisis in the Middle East and the right to abortiona very important issue for Democrats.
With Senator VanceIn a meeting in Mar o Lago, Trump spent hours talking about the national economy and how to take advantage of voters’ fears regarding an eventual rise in inflation in 2025. And during a meeting with Rubio and Schmitt, The former president analyzed his legal situation and its probable impact on the electoral campaign.
Unlike Trump, the president agreed to confront a sparring partner who will act as the Republican candidate. Bob Bauera renowned lawyer who worked with Barack Obama, will play Trump when Biden you have to prove your arguments in a simulation of an electoral debate.
Bauer It was Trump in the 2020 Democratic campaign, and told it in his book of The Unraveling.
“We booked special sessions during which we were expected to I was Trump at his worst; so personally insulting and unhinged as Trump can be“, Bauer revealed in his memoir published a few days ago in the United States.
Bauer reports to Mike Donilonhe political architect of the Biden campaign. Donilon believes that the communication axis It must be the defense of democracy, an argument proposal that is nuanced by prominent Democratic figures who they do not belong to Biden’s closed circle.
That circle of power is made up of Donilon, Bauer, Ron Klain, Bruce Reed, Anthony Bernal and Annie Tomasini. All trust in the strategy proposed by Donilon, and if there are new arguments -economic, social and financial-, they will only join to the official speech when it has been proven that they work in favor of candidate Biden.
“In Mike Donilon we trust“said Ron Klain, Biden’s former chief of staff and Democratic consultant who has been preparing presidential candidates since the time of Bill Clinton.
Aside from the internal debate regarding the basic lines of the presidential speech, Biden’s main advisors define a countless trail of probable scenarios that Trump could raise in the Atlanta debate.
The president has Cartesian logicand their advisors try to use a random method to facilitate the Democratic candidate’s ability to improvise in the face of an unexpected Trump attack.
That is to say: the Republicans claim that Biden is doubtful because of his age, and they could force an atypical situation with certain political proposals – the conviction of Hunter Biden, for example – to demonstrate in the middle of the debate that the head of state It is not located in time and space.
Biden fears that Trump stroke to his son Hunter, or raise political situations unexpected regarding Ukraine, the Middle East and gender equality. In this context, and to avoid the electoral use of a presidential response that was delayed one second longer, consultants train Biden to avoid surprises and answer without a hint of doubt.
This is not theoretical speculation: Republicans they posted on social networks scenes of Biden in Italy’s G7 and in one gala in Los Angeles for demonstrate that the president sometimes loses his sense of direction. In both situations, the Democratic Committee used its media artillery to prove otherwise.
The two electoral adversaries match about the political importance of the debate. Biden and Trump will spend the next 120 hours adjusting their speeches and defining their electoral strategies.
The winner in the Battle of Atlanta has a chance to repeat in the presidential elections of November 5, 2024. It already happened with John Fitzgerald Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960, and was repeated with George Bush, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot in 1992.
After winning their presidential debatesJFK and Clinton entered the White House.
