“The candidates need no introduction.” With those words from the moderator, the first debate between candidates for the presidency of the United States began on September 26, 1960. A tanned and telegenic John Fitzgerald Kennedy, who thoroughly prepared the meeting, prevailed over the pale and careless-looking Richard Nixon, who relied on his experience in radio debates. “When it was all over, a man walked out of the studio as president of the United States. He didn’t have to wait until Election Day,” said the producer, Don Hewitt, according to one of Alan Schroeder’s books, one of the greatest experts on presidential debates.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump need no introduction. They are the same candidates from the previous elections and both have occupied the White House, something that only happened before in 1892. Both face each other this coming Thursday in a debate that could change the course of the polls on November 5. Several presidential debates, in addition to the Kennedy-Nixon one, have been decisive. This, in which a convicted criminal participates for the first time, is presented as transcendental, given how tight the polls are. It will be a harsh debate, in the face of a dog, in which two candidates who disqualify each other and who already went down in the mud and insulted each other when they faced each other in the 2020 debates, especially in the first, are measured.
To avoid a dialogue of the deaf with permanent interruptions, CNN, which organizes and broadcasts the debate in its studios in Atlanta, will silence the microphone of those who do not have the floor, although it remains to be seen how effective this measure is. The debate will be held without an audience, like the two in 2020. On that occasion due to covid, which prevented the candidates from even shaking hands. This time to avoid a battle of applause and boos.
In principle, these two rules favor Biden, since Trump moves more comfortably in the mud and his speech inflames his noisy faithful. The current president has won the toss that gave him the right to choose his side on stage or close the debate. Biden has chosen to stand at the lectern on the right of the screen, allowing Trump to say the last word.
The 90-minute debate will have two advertising interruptions in which the candidates, aged 81 and 78, respectively, will be able to go to the bathroom, but not speak with their advisors. There will be no opening interventions, but rather we will go directly to the moderators’ questions, which have not been anticipated. There will be two minutes to answer, followed by one minute of reply and another of counter-reply. A red light will flash when there are five seconds left in each turn and will stay on when the time is up. No graphics or other objects, nor pre-prepared notes, will be permitted. Candidates will receive paper, pen and a bottle of water.
Neither Biden nor Trump have participated in debates since they last faced each other on October 22, 2020. The former president decided not to attend the Republican primaries, a strategy that proved successful. Biden has been locked up at Camp David since Thursday, preparing systematically with his advisors. His former chief of staff, Ron Klain, leads the team and his personal attorney, Bob Bauer, serves as sparring For the 2020 debates, Bauer already played Trump, including insults, according to what he says in a recently published book. Trump, a television animal who loves improvisation—which often leads him to mess—has had some preparatory sessions and will concentrate on his Mar-a-Lago mansion in Palm Beach (Florida), but this weekend he continued with its public agenda.
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An early morning debate
The debate comes sooner than ever, about three months earlier than usual. There are four and a half months until Election Day and neither Trump nor Biden have even been officially named candidates by their party conventions, to be held in July and August. The campaigns allege that voters begin voting early as early as September.
Both have preferred to leave aside the face-to-face meetings organized by the commission that has been in charge of this in recent decades and with which both Democrats and Republicans are dissatisfied. They have agreed on two confrontations, this Thursday on CNN and another on September 10 on the ABC network. The one on CNN will be the first debate broadcast exclusively by a network, since the commission allowed free use of its signal. Trump has accepted another debate on the ultra-conservative Fox News for October 2, but it does not seem very likely that it will be held.
A first victory for the two candidates has been the exclusion of independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has not exceeded the 15% threshold in four national polls nor is he yet registered in enough states to be elected president, as required. .
The dialectical battle over the meeting began since the dates were set. “Trump lost two debates against me in 2020 and has not appeared in any others since. He now acts as if he wants to debate me again. “Make my day, friend,” he challenged. “Corrupt Joe Biden is the WORST debater I have ever faced. “He can’t put two sentences together!” Trump replied. The campaigns of both have come to question whether the other contender is going to appear.
Trump, however, later corrected the shot. First, at a recent rally in Racine (Wisconsin), he came to insinuate that his advisors would give the president drugs—he cited the episode of cocaine found in the White House—so that he would get a “high” and do better. . Then, in an interview broadcast this past Thursday, he completely changed his speech: “I suppose he will be someone who will debate with dignity. I don’t want to underestimate him,” he said, later recalling that he “destroyed” Republican Paul Ryan in the 2012 vice presidential candidate debate.
Two exam candidates
The two candidates face a demanding exam. In the case of Biden, her mental acuity and, in part, her physical condition are being tested — the Trump campaign has even hinted that she will not be able to stand for 90 minutes. The obvious slowness and clumsiness of his movements and several videos taken out of context have accentuated the widespread perception among voters that he is too old for the job, an impression he tried to combat in his energetic State of the Union address in March, but that haunts him without remedy, again and again. Not in vain, he is the first octogenarian president in the history of the United States and would end his second term at the age of 86. Biden needs to show that he is fit. At the same time, he will present Trump as a threat to democracy, a convicted felon seeking revenge who aspires to the presidency for his personal interests.
In the three weeks since Trump was found guilty of 34 crimes in the Stormy Daniels case (the payment of a bribe to a porn actress), Biden has surpassed him in the polls, according to the FiveThirtyEight firm, a poll aggregator. The former president has gone from having a lead of 1.4 points to being behind by 0.2 points. Other poll aggregators still put Trump ahead. However, the elections are not decided by the popular vote, but will depend on a handful of decisive states, mainly Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona.
Democrats have released their own compilations of gaffes, errors and blunders by the 78-year-old Trump, but what the former president will have to deal with is that criminal label, his willingness to accept the election result and his character. The extremist Trump campaign that excites his loyalists will have a difficult time convincing undecided voters in the key states, on which the election may depend, so he has to decide whether he chooses a somewhat more reasonable profile. As he already did in 2020, the former president will attack Biden because of his son Hunter, recently convicted of three crimes, and will present his rival as incapable of continuing in office.
The Supreme Court may become a last-minute guest, as it has yet to decide on Trump’s criminal immunity and has scheduled the publication of rulings for the day before the debate. A decision in this regard would set the agenda.
Competing views on immigration, citizen security, the economy, abortion, foreign policy and democracy itself will appear on the scene, but they will probably not be what decides the debate. Of the 2020 clashes, what is most remembered is how Biden dealt with Trump’s constant interruptions in the first clash: “Will you shut up, man?”
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