President Joe Biden’s debate performance raises new questions about whether Democrats have other options in November if the 81-year-old president is no longer willing or able to campaign. With Biden already having secured a presumptive nomination, Democrats’ prospects for a turnaround are dimming.
Speaking in a hoarse voice and suffering from what aides said was a cold, Biden spoke haltingly and at times disjointedly Thursday, a performance that is only renewing concerns about his ability to serve four more years. Biden told reporters afterward that he will remain in the race.
“It got stronger as the debate went on, but by then I think panic had set in,” David Axelrod, a former campaign strategist for President Barack Obama, told CNN.. “And I think there are going to be discussions, which I don’t know if they will lead to anything, but there will be discussions about whether it should continue.” Here’s how those discussions could play out.
Is there a precedent?
Yes. More recently, President Lyndon Johnson decided not to seek renomination for a second full term in 1968, as protests over the Vietnam War grew. In a speech in the Oval Office, Johnson made the surprise announcement that “I will neither seek nor accept my party’s nomination for another term as its president.”
But that was at the end of March, very late even before the modern nominations calendar became as packed as it is today. Unlike Johnson, Biden has already secured enough delegates for the nomination.
Can Biden be removed from the list?
It would be difficult. Biden faced minimal opposition in his party’s primaries and secured 99% of the pledged delegates for the convention. Those delegates will be chosen in large part for their loyalty to the president. Absent extraordinary circumstances (and a backup plan), it’s unlikely you’ll get your fine waived.
Any rival to Biden would have to announce their candidacy before the formal vote, publicly challenging the incumbent in a high-stakes partisan coup attempt.
How soon should a decision be made?
Soon. The Democratic National Committee had already planned to advance Biden’s nomination via a phone call before the convention to meet the Aug. 7 voting deadline in Ohio. Ohio’s Republican-led legislature has extended that deadline, but Democratic Speaker Jaime Harrison has said the party will go ahead with the early roll call anyway.which turns the convention, which begins on August 19, into a mere formality.
What if Biden resigned after the convention?
The decision to replace him would be made by DNC members, but the party would face another obstacle: ballots printed with Biden’s name already on them.
Laws vary by state on how a vote for Biden would be counted if he is no longer the nominee, but their votes would likely go to his replacement when the Electoral College meets.
Who are the possible successors?
Vice President Kamala Harris is the most logical heir apparent, but it wouldn’t be automatic. Other candidates waiting in the wings, who leaned toward Biden and continue to support him publicly, They include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
According to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll across seven battleground states, none of those candidates has polled better against Trump than Biden.
What about the money?
Modern presidential campaigns are enormously expensive undertakings, and financial considerations would play no small role.
Biden’s campaign and party had $212 million in cash on hand at the end of Mayand that money would be available to Harris should she take over the ticket. Any other candidate would likely have to start from scratch.
The Biden campaign and the Democratic Party have already spent about $346 million trying to re-elect Biden. Choosing another candidate could require spending even more money to get a new name in front of voters.
