The Latin American agenda knows no pauses. The government of Javier Milei, in Argentina, and that of Gustavo Petro, in Colombia, face massive protests. Peru is in the middle of a political crisis, Ecuador ravaged by crime and drug trafficking. And, among the six presidential elections this year, those of Mexico and Venezuela are emerging as historic processes.
Both the Venezuelan regime, with Nicolás Maduro, and the Nicaraguan regime, with Daniel Ortega, continue to reaffirm their power with undemocratic measures. And Haiti, meanwhile, faces a deep humanitarian, security and governance crisis.
As advanced by the Latin American Political Risk Index 2024, edited by the Center for International Studies of the Catholic University of Chile, Latin American governments face the threat of “organized crime, systemic corruption and authoritarian populism,” which erodes the rule of law and the quality of democracies in the region, and complicates governability.
“We are in a sort of pivotal moment, because many changes are occurring and we do not know if the region is going to move in the direction of these changes or if it is going to react in an unpredictable way,” political scientist Christopher Martínez, an academic at the University of Concepción, Chile.
These are changes that originated with the pandemic and the new ways in which drug trafficking is organized. They are also associated with migration processes and the resurgence of right-wing governments, in the style of Nayib Bukele, explains the author of the book “Why presidents fail”, about presidential instability in Latin America.
Political scientist Alberto Vergara Paniagua, professor at the Universidad del Pacífico in Lima, observes at the regional level “a moment of traffic jam. Neither the economy nor the politics of the countries point in a direction that allows us to be optimistic.” Although he points out to DW that A diagnosis that spans 20 countries does not fit exactly for everyone; it does identify at the regional level “an uncertain bad mood on the part of citizen subjectivity.”
In the opinion of the author of the book “Defrauded Republics”, the citizenship regime is not working in Latin America: “In the dimensions of political, civil, social rights, participation in the labor market and in economic life, the majorities have a very precarious situation to assert their condition and see their citizen hope disappointed.”
Political, economic and security crises
Insecurity, delinquency and organized crime are issues that mark the moment in Latin America and reinforce the discourse of the right, observes Martínez. “That’s why we see the need to have presidents who appear to be strong,” says the Chilean political scientist.
The case of Ecuador, where in a few years violence and drug trafficking put an end to the usual tranquility, shows that criminal gangs can destabilize a weak State in a short time, which is not prepared to deal with this type of problems, and it is a warning for other Latin American countries.
Vergara agrees that the problem of security and high homicide rates is key. At the same time, “it is an open window for politicians and positions to appear through this issue that have a harmful component for people’s freedoms.”
The Peruvian academic also points to the political aspect: “We are facing electoral democracies that function relatively well, they hold recurring, transparent, clean and fair elections, but they are very weak when it comes to converting citizen demands into policies that satisfy those needs, which “it weakens the legitimacy of the system.”
Likewise, Martínez appreciates “a phenomenon of growing polarization, at the level of the elite rather than the electorate. There are, for example, the problems between Ecuador and Mexico, triggered by ideological differences. On the other hand, in Peru, Dina Boluarte is exercising an administration of the order and repression. There is a weakening of democratic norms, not only because of the exercise of power, but because people begin to question the extent to which the tools of democracy are useful for dealing with fundamental issues.”
Added to this is a complex economic moment, in a global context of slowdown, which hits a region with “unproductive economies, large doses of informality, impoverished societies after the pandemic and middle classes that see today that their expectations are going to be very difficult.” to comply,” says Vergara.
The past commodity boom reduced poverty, but the region did not ensure a growth pattern. The current promise of lithium and green hydrogen does not ensure that it will translate into greater development and less inequality, even more so amid questions about the possible environmental consequences. “The cycle ends and the countries slowly fall back to their previous balances, and without counting all the resources that are lost due to corruption,” says Martínez, referring to another of the evils that afflicts Latin America.
What’s coming
“I see the governability scenario for the region as complex,” warns Martínez. There is a weakening, because the States are not complying with basic aspects such as security, but also, “because governability requires stable parties and, except for Uruguay, in all countries are experiencing a significant weakening.”
In this scenario, he warns that “doubts arise about whether democracy really works and, therefore, we could move away from it.” Furthermore, because the demands of the large protests in recent years, on socioeconomic issues, such as health and pensions, have not been satisfied. The academic from the University of Concepción advances that “environmental issues, until now limited, are going to be added. Due to the scarcity of water, damage due to megafires or drought will increase and become urgent issues that affect daily life.”
The specter of new social outbreaks is present: “The pandemic stopped them, it was not an end to the effervescence because the people’s demands were accepted. Countries have generally failed to solve them. There is still unrest and the possibility of an outbreak It is latent,” says Martínez. However, he also observes caution, due to the learning from these experiences and the higher levels of poverty and economic uncertainty left by the pandemic.
For his part, Vergara agrees that these events can occur again. “By definition, these types of outbursts tend to catch us by surprise. The question is whether they can be more successful in achieving reforms and changing the course of their countries, rather than simply giving voice to a displeasure,” he says.
In this sense, the academic from the Universidad del Pacífico highlights a regional characteristic: “In Latin America we are more clearly in agreement regarding what we dislike than about what we want. The Chilean case is paradigmatic,” he points out in reference to the failed attempts to change Pinochet’s Constitution, as well as the difficulty of the democratic regime in Latin America “to transform citizen will into real changes.”
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