(CNN) — Right-wing populists are poised to make unprecedented gains in next month’s European Parliament elections. As European officials prepare for a new parliament, concerns are growing that the 27-nation bloc could become more vulnerable to adversary states seeking to harm the bloc.
Polling data suggests that far-right members of the European Parliament could have enough seats to together block the passage of EU legislation, creating a huge headache for the union as a whole.
As important as this change may be in influencing the most powerful people in Brussels and the direction of the bloc, officials are now concerned about the impact this will have on EU security.
The recent arrest of a German national working as an aide to a far-right MEP, suspected of spying for China, has fueled fears that a sizeable influx of Eurosceptic and anti-establishment figures who have lived on the fringes of mainstream politics will join become an easy target for adversary states.
“Elected populists are especially attractive to malign actors for two reasons,” says James Shires, co-director of the European Cyber Conflict Research Initiative.
“Firstly, they are anti-establishment figures who do not trust the institutions or structures in which they work. It is difficult to make the leap from believing that there is an establishment conspiracy against you to cooperating with those institutions to counter security threats,” he explained. “Second, in many cases there is an instinctive alignment with states like China or Russia. They agree with them in certain areas and are happy to put forward opinions, and even spread disinformation, on their behalf.”
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is seeking re-election this summer. (Credit: Yiannis Kourtoglou/Reuters)
While it is nothing new for hostile actors to try to influence politicians, the arrival of populists in an institution like the European Parliament at this very moment is especially worrying.
One of the arguments made by European security officials is that these smaller, newer parties do not have much experience in working with the security services, nor do they even have much experience—or interest—in vetting their own candidates or employees.
The European Parliament itself does not have a unit in charge of examining parliamentarians and depends on the 27 EU member states that send deputies to Brussels and Strasbourg.
“For some countries, it is a six-month process, in others it can take two years,” a senior European Parliament source told CNN. “Much of the EU treaties do not apply to security services, so we have very little central oversight and countries are not obliged to send us sensitive information. We can do criminal record checks but, you will be surprised to know, the “Most spies do not have active criminal records.”
What harm could an MEP really do once elected to the European Parliament? There are multiple opportunities to wreak havoc from within the system, but two in particular stand out.
The first is more innocuous at first glance. MEPs can give speeches in Parliament that are recorded, clipped and promoted on social media. Many former British MPs used these speeches to great effect between 2010 and 2016 as a way of spreading Euroscepticism in the UK. This ultimately contributed to his exit from the block.
If MEPs want to speak out and spread misinformation or disinformation that aligns with the objectives of states hostile to the EU, they are perfectly within their rights to do so. They can denounce Europe’s support for Ukraine, rail against marriage equality and climate change, all to undermine Western ideas and sow disunity. Knowingly or not, it doesn’t matter: if you align yourself with the interests of a hostile state, you align yourself with the interests of a hostile state.
This is difficult for the EU because, unless a foreign state is directly paying an MEP to lobby or lie on its behalf, it is perfectly legal.
“You can be ‘Putinist’, or pro-Xi, and that’s fine, in the sense that they are entitled to their opinion. It only becomes a problem if they are working with foreign powers to promote their agenda,” said one source. of EU security to CNN. “Otherwise, it is democratically legitimate for them to have an opinion and express it in Parliament.”
The second major way in which an MEP or a member of their staff could harm the EU to the benefit of a hostile state is through illegal means. Leaking sensitive information to which they have access, collaborating in cyber attacks, stealing documents and delivering them to foreign agents… what is considered more classic espionage.
Populism is nothing new in Brussels. Britain’s Nigel Farage used his seat in the European Parliament to promote Brexit. (Credit: Sebastien Bozon/AFP/Getty Images)
Among the 27 Member States – all of them with embassies, multiple institutions, hundreds of elected officials and thousands of employees – Brussels is a place where a lot of sensitive information flies. Much of it leaks out.
Anything from the EU’s future plans to citizens’ personal data can be valuable to those who wish to harm the EU. A senior diplomat from the bloc told CNN this was especially worrying now that Europe is taking more serious and direct steps on security and defense policy in response to Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
As Brussels seeks to be taken more seriously as a diplomatic player, its own security will come under increasing pressure from its international rivals. The EU and its Member States are solely responsible for taking the necessary measures to stop those who want to harm it. And failure to do so could derail those great ambitions of greater global relevance.
