The Revolution of 1979 stripped Iran of Western influences and forged a stronghold of Islam in the Middle East. The religious component, embodied in the supreme leader and linked to sharia, remains practically intact 45 years later and maintains its supremacy over reformist and less radical aspects.
The death of president Ebrahim Raisi altered the line of succession devised by Ali Khamenei and it is not clear who will be the future candidate, both for the government and for the head of state.
President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei showed a single tune in the last 12 years. Raisi’s adherence to the Islamic political, judicial and religious system comes from his clerical training linked to the religion and Islamic jurisprudence classes dictated by Ayatollah Khamenei. Very few politicians in the hermetic sphere of power escape the strict values of sharia.
Since Raisi’s strong emergence into the judiciary, Khamenei promoted the late president at different stages during the 30 years of his career in Justice.
Was appointed vice president of the Supreme Court in 2004, Special Prosecutor General of the Clergy in 2012, Custos of Astan Quds Razavi in 2016 and the highest position, president of the Supreme Court of Justicein 2019.
Far from being a reformer, throughout his judicial career was involved in the most extremist actions permitted by Islamism and there were no signs of promoting new freedoms and rights.
It was part of the Death Committee created by the revolutionary leader Ruhollah Mousavi Khomeini to execute more than 30,000 people in 1998. Among them were thousands of political prisoners linked to leftist and communist groups that were not framed in Islamic precepts.
In 2009, nine people were sentenced to death detained within the framework of the election protests who carried slogans against the fraud denounced by the opposition.
Ebrahim Raisi sought the presidency of Iran in 2017 with the support of two political parties and the endorsement of the Council of Guardians, the body that approves the candidacies. The one born in Mashhad achieved second place with more than 15 million votes. For the 2021 elections, Ebrahim Raisi obtained the support of four forces and obtained the vote of 18 million people to become the new president of Iran.
As president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Raisi showed support for Ali Khamenei and fidelity to his will as head of state, both in national politics and in international relations. The unconditional support was going to be rewarded in the future: the 85-year-old supreme leader saw him as his successor in the most important position of Iranian Islam.
The plane crash that led to Raisi’s death altered Ayatollah Khamenei’s plans and left him without a clear candidate to guarantee the succession.
After the death of Ebrahim Raisi, Ali Khamenei did not let a day go by without having a president. Immediately, he appointed the first vice president Mohammad Mokhber so that he takes the reins of the country on an interim basis and thus avoids a power vacuum.
The legitimate command of the country will be determined on June 28th, when the elections dictated by the National Constitution are held. He Supreme leader will provide his approval or veto for candidates to appear in the elections, being able to avoid the participation of the opposition and reformists.
However, internal concerns go beyond the head of Government, although there is concern about the distance from society, symbolized in the record of low participation and abstention from the 2021 presidential elections.
Ali Khamenei85 years old, is currently the head of state and commander of the Armed Forces. It has authority over the National Police, the Moral Police, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), responsible for protecting Islamism in Iran and the Middle East, and the Basij Resistance Force, responsible for maintaining public order and discourage opposition protests.
Furthermore, you have the power to choose the head of the Judiciaryministers and the authorities of the Convenience Council and the Guardian Councilthe body that controls the actions of the head of Government, Parliament and the Assembly of Experts.
Within the executive branch, Khamenei intervenes directly in the policies of the nuclear program, military forces and international relations.
The supreme leadership, a “almighty” presence in the three political powers, was going to pass into the hands of the late Raisi. The death of the acting president represents a problem for the future. For Khamenei, it is key to ensure that the next supreme leadership authorityas it is officially called, is a person who ensures the continuity of the establishments of the Revolution of 79.
Without natural continuity, Ali Khamenei will seek a new candidate to guarantee the permanence of the ayatollahs as the maximum reference and political-religious authority in Iran, as well as Sharia as the text that shapes the lives of millions of people. This emerging figure must undergo the Assembly of Expertsa body of 88 clerics selected by the people every eight years, who will elect the new supreme leader.
The ayatollahs are not the only ones who have power intentions. The Pasdaranfounded by Ruhollah Khomeini, assumed the role of guardians of islam since the revolutionary victory in 1979, but its implication in the present exceeds Iranian borders.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has a military presence in numerous Middle Eastern countries and fights a separate fight against Western powers and Israel. Through a network of allied states and terrorist organizations as Hamas and Hezbollahhe IRGC it shapes regional politics and strengthens hostility with the Israelis.
Behind closed doors, with the endorsement of the supreme leader, the Pasdaran and the Basij volunteers They discouraged political dissidence and protests with a heavy hand. The continued repression generated a authoritarianism supported by the political and clerical system. The military deepened his influence in the government, the economy and national political affairs. They govern in 10 of the 33 provinceshave 80 members in Parliament and the speaker of Parliament, Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf, was chief of the Pasdaran Air Force.
The Revolutionary Guard became a challenging power inside and outside Iran that will seek to reverse the historical influence of the supreme leaderled by a reformist president.
Iranian politics is in a encloses between undisputed supremacy of the supreme leadership and the growing involvement of the Pasdaran in local affairs. A model less concentrated on a religious figure and a continuity of the current scheme They will face each other first at the polls and then in Parliament.
