(CNN) – Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be forced to choose between accepting a ceasefire deal with Hamas or keeping his government in power.
But as he faces that choice, Netanyahu is also looking for a way to avoid it altogether.
For months, Netanyahu cautiously balanced these elements, refusing to even contemplate a permanent ceasefire while blaming Hamas’s “delusional demands” for the collapse of previous rounds of negotiations. But after US President Joe Biden publicly outlined Israel’s latest ceasefire proposal on Friday – one that could lead to a permanent truce and that Hamas might be willing to accept – Netanyahu ran out of time.
“I think Bibi is cornered right now,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser who used the prime minister’s nickname. Biden “forces Bibi to take off her mask and say, ‘OK, it’s time to decide.’ Are you in favor of a deal?’” he said.
As Israel awaits Hamas’ response to the latest proposal, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and other far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition are threatening to abandon the government and cause its collapse if the prime minister goes ahead.
Amid the chorus of threats from his right flank, Netanyahu is trying to reframe the latest proposal for a ceasefire, insisting to Ben Gvir and others that the terms of the agreement are not as Biden defined them. While the US president clearly framed the proposal as a way to end the war, Netanyahu insists that Israel will not end the war until Hamas is eliminated.
Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee on Monday that “the claim that we agreed to a ceasefire without our conditions being met is not true.”
He appeared to refer to the permanent ceasefire outlined in the second phase of the proposal. Israel and Hamas would have to negotiate those conditions during the first phase, a point Netanyahu has sought to emphasize in recent days.
According to Biden, the three-phase proposal would combine the release of hostages with a “total and complete ceasefire.”
But Netanyahu’s spokesman told reporters at a briefing on Monday that Biden presented only a “partial” outline of the deal Israel offered to Hamas.
“The war will be stopped in order to return the hostages and then we will proceed with more talks. “There are other details that the American president did not present to the public,” the spokesperson added.
The spokesman reiterated Israel’s refusal to accept any ceasefire until all hostages have been freed, until Gaza no longer represents “a threat” to Israel, and until Hamas’ “military and governance capabilities” in Gaza have been eradicated.
“The idea that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are met is impossible. “It is not an option,” the spokesperson said.
Netanyahu’s efforts to convince far-right ministers to avoid choosing between a ceasefire agreement and the survival of his government have so far failed. Ben Gvir said Monday that Netanyahu’s office refused to honor a commitment to show him the draft proposal, leaving him convinced the prime minister has something to hide.
If Ben Gvir or Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich do not back down on their threats to leave the government, Netanyahu will return to the binary choice that is beginning to materialize before his eyes.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid offered to provide a “safety net” to keep the government in power in order to reach a ceasefire agreement, but doing so would also be handing Lapid the keys to forcing early elections once once the agreement is implemented.
As has happened over the past eight months, Netanyahu’s political survival may become embroiled in the continuation of the war and his elusive quest for a complete victory over Hamas.
Netanyahu faces a choice between the survival of his government and a hostage deal at a time when his political fortunes have begun to improve. For the first time this year, Netanyahu surpassed his main political rival, Benny Gantz, 36% to 30%, as Israelis’ preferred choice for prime minister, according to a Channel 12 poll last week.
Protesters hold flags and signs during a demonstration calling for a hostage deal with Hamas and against Netanyahu and his government, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on May 11. Credit: Amir Levy/Getty Images.
And some recent polls showed Gantz’s National Unity party faltering, while Netanyahu’s Likud made modest gains. National Unity would still win a plurality of seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, but the party’s 19-seat lead over Likud in December was narrowed to a four-seat lead in last week’s Channel 12 poll.
The improvement in Netanyahu’s political standing coincided with a wave of international condemnation of Israel’s war effort in Gaza and the International Criminal Court’s decision to seek an arrest warrant for Netanyahu. All of this positioned Netanyahu nationally as Israel’s defender, a familiar and comfortable role for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. Meanwhile, Gantz’s threat to leave the war cabinet over Netanyahu’s lack of a long-term strategy in Gaza appears to be the cause of his falling support.
A poll conducted Monday by Israel’s Channel 11 put the Israeli public’s support for the ceasefire deal currently on the table at 40%, with 27% against and 33% undecided.
But as Netanyahu now contemplates whether there are more advantages to continuing the war than reaching a ceasefire agreement, Biden’s speech last week not only forced Netanyahu to face that choice, but also aimed to counteract the pressure now Netanyahu faces to abandon his own government’s proposal.
“I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely. Some are even in the governing coalition,” Biden said. “Well, I urged Israel’s leaders to support this agreement, despite any pressure that arises.”
Despite Netanyahu’s statements that the conditions for ending the war “have not changed,” the US State Department said Monday that it was “completely confident” that Israel would accept the proposal presented by Biden. . “The only thing standing in the way of an immediate ceasefire today is Hamas,” Matthew Miller said at a news conference.
But a key question remains: Will Hamas force Netanyahu to make the decision he now faces? Or will Yahya Sinwar, Hamas leader in Gaza, offer Netanyahu an escape route of his own making?
Hamas said it viewed Biden’s speech on the latest Israeli proposal “positively,” but has not yet presented its official response.
While the recent proposal makes important concessions to close the gap with Hamas’s demands – including offering a clear path to a permanent ceasefire – it still falls short of meeting all demands.
It allows an initial six-week ceasefire period to be extended while the parties need to negotiate a permanent truce that includes the departure of Israeli soldiers from Gaza in a second phase of the agreement. But it does not require Israel to commit beforehand to a permanent ceasefire.
Hamas’s refusal to budge on that point and sign this deal could free Netanyahu and plunge Gaza into many more months of war.
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