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PARIS.– Once again, Vladimir Putin threatened the West this week. In an unusual interview with several foreign press agencies in Saint Petersburg, on the eve of the celebrations of the 1944 Normandy Landings that were attended by the Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskywhere his country was not invited, the head of the Kremlin declared willing to deliver weapons to third countries capable of attacking Western “sensitive facilities”if the allies authorize Ukraine to hit sensitive targets in Russia with its long range missiles. Threats that, according to Western experts, have “a very relative importance”.
An eye for an eye, a missile for a missile? Outraged by the authorization received by kyiv to use Western missiles to hit the bases in Russian territory from where the attacks against his country originate, the Kremlin autocrat presented his threats as a legitimate response.
“If someone considers it possible to deliver these weapons in the combat zone to attack our territory…, Why wouldn’t we have the right to give weapons of the same type to regions of the world where sensitive facilities in countries acting against Russia would be hit?”Putin said.
At the same time, US officials stated that Russia was preparing to carry out naval maneuvers… in the Caribbean, during the boreal summer. military maneuvers that They would be coordinated with Cuba and Venezuela, two Latin American countries that, since 2022, have unequivocally supported the war launched by Moscow against Ukraine..
In other words, Moscow seems “multiply the threats of extension of the Ukrainian conflict to other horizons, and raises the risk of proliferation of weapons in the hands of Washington’s enemies”summarized Jeff Hawn, Russia specialist at the London School of Economics.
But as always, Putin’s rhetoric “remains extremely vague on the details of those threats”assures, for his part, General Dominique Trinquant, former head of the French military mission at the UN, for whom, despite his repeated threats of apocalypse, “the only nuclear war that Putin has launched so far has been on social media”.
And what are the countries concerned? What weapons would they be? In reality, Putin purposely did not give details. Its first objective remains to “instill fear in Western leaders and fuel the discourses of those who want to stop supporting Ukraine militarily.”says Hawn. By remaining vague, the head of the Kremlin allows everyone to interpret his threats based on his own fears, especially the fears of Western public opinion.
BesidesRussia’s options are also limited regarding the countries that would eventually receive these weapons.. Putin’s threats “could mean that Moscow is willing to send more weapons to Belarus – Russia’s main ally in Europe – or to certain African countries, which have recently turned against Europe or the United States,” analyzes Patrick Martin-Genier, an International Relations specialist, who recalls that Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, has just concluded an African tour that took him to Burkina Faso and, for the first time, Chad. Such visits could prefigure closer military cooperation.
“We will most likely see an increase in arms shipments to Central African countries”, says Martin-Genier. Russia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo also signed a military cooperation agreement with Moscow in March. But most experts point out that it is not in that area where the strategic sites of Western countries are located. At most, in an unstable regional context, the flow of new Russian weapons could be an additional destabilizing element.
Iran and North Korea are other countries to which Russia could send more military material. But it is much less certain that Russia can, with impunity, send weapons to its allies in Latin America, such as Venezuela and Cuba.
To start, It would be necessary for all these countries to agree to attack Western strategic interests. And nothing is less certain.
Belarus represents, in this sense, a case of an “ally” school unwilling to venture too far down the path of war against the West.
“The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, does not miss an opportunity to support Russia with his words. But, when it comes to actions, she always tries not to let herself get sucked into the Ukrainian war,” says Hawn. For his part, Venezuela and Cuba recognize that the United States is, by far, the dominant power in the region”, he adds.
Without forgetting that Russia can hardly “flood” the world with weapons to export its war in Ukraine to other horizons: “Yes, they have reserves of ballistic missiles, drones or, simply, military ammunition,” General Trinquant recognizes. But “taking into account his own needs to strike in Ukraine, surely it will not send its ‘good’ weapons to other countries”, he analyzes.
Consequently, the risk is “very weak so that eventual shipments of Russian weapons could represent a significant danger to North American or Western strategic interests,” says General Nicolas Richou, former commander of the 7th Armored Brigade, defense attaché in Berlin. , historian. “Especially because those sites are extremely well protected against the most modern weapons,” he adds.
Russian threats to implement its vision of the Talion Law would, in short, “essentially meaningless”Richou assures.
“It is above all a Kremlin communication operation”, precise. In his opinion, after European and North American statements authorizing Kiev to use Western weapons to hit targets in Russian territory, and faced with the humiliation of not having been invited to the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Landing, Putin felt obliged to react.
“It’s like a conditioned reflex. “He hasn’t stopped doing it since he launched his illegal war against Ukraine.”he concludes.
