Russian naval units have finally arrived in Cuba, news that has been repeated for days in the press and on television around the world. In reality, it is a minimal flotilla for an exercise that had the purpose of simulating a missile attack against a group of enemy ships in the Caribbean Sea, off the coast of Florida. The frigate Gorshkov, the nuclear submarine Kazan, the tanker Pashin and the tugboat Nikolai Chiker could remain in the area until the summer. From the Marin Traffic monitoring site it is learned that the Moscow deployment sailed surrounded by the destroyers Traxtan and Donald Cook and the Canadian frigate Ville de Quebec and also by an unknown number of Poseidon P-8 anti-submarine aircraft and Canadian CP 140 Aurora patrol aircraft . The local press reports that the ships will remain in Havana for approximately a week, for a stay that promises to be historic, including tourist visits by men, women and children.
Russia has maintained a regular presence in the region
Russian visits to the Caribbean are not new. In the past decade, Moscow regularly sent ships to the area where Cuba, its main ally, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, and a special ally, Nicaragua, reside. However, the recent escalation of nervousness between Russia and the United States and NATO, caused by the invasion of Ukraine, has given these exercises a heightened significance. In a scenario marked by financial, economic, structural problems and international restrictions, these maneuvers favor the image of a country capable of imposing a powerful presence as a global nuclear military power. This does not help to think that everything is under control, the idea that Russia could have a military presence and political, military, economic and strategic influence in a number of growing countries adds international concern. Venezuela could keep Russian strategic bombers in its air bases. This would represent an eloquent change in the balances of the region. Nicaragua has also positioned itself as a key actor, having been defined as a type of Russian aircraft carrier in the area. Two years ago, shortly before the invasion of Ukraine, Cuba and its protector discussed the possible installation of missiles on the island.
Response to US provocation
We are all aware that since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the world is no longer the same and is experiencing constant confrontations and geopolitical crises, with the West committed to defending democratic values. After having authorized Zelenksy the use of weapons NATO In Russian territory, some countries demand the possibility of intervening in the conflict with European soldiers to alleviate the already certain shortage of Ukrainian troops.
This very unpopular call among the people of the old continent has forced, for example, Macron to call new elections that could cost him the presidency, although he continues to affirm that he is not going to resign. In recent months, China has approached Russia again to unite its hegemonic forces and is increasing tension over Taiwan, provoking the United States to verify its willingness to maintain protection agreements for the island. In the Middle East, Israel’s retaliation for the October 7 attack is dragging on so seriously that, for the first time, on March 25, Washington decided to abstain from a vote at the United Nations because the resolution, although it did not expressly condemn The actions carried out by Hamas, presented elements consistent with the position of the White House, thus provoking the anger of the Jewish country.
Putin sends a message of force, deterrence and threat
In this very serious scenario, in which ordinary people wonder if a third world war could break out, the Russian-Cuban exercises will also take place almost simultaneously with the Baltops, the traditional NATO naval maneuvers in the Baltic Sea, giving the impression that Moscow’s measure has been programmed to compensate for the presence of the United States so close to Russian territory. The Atlantic Alliance exercises will be delayed until June 20 with the participation of more than 50 ships, 25 aircraft and 9,000 soldiers from Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, the United States, Estonia, France, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania , Norway, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, United Kingdom, Romania, Turkey in addition to the last two to join the alliance: Finland and Sweden. Since the first edition in 1971, the Baltops have increased their sophistication, number of participants and amount of operating means, in addition to giving the impression of being a not even very concealed provocation towards the “enemy”.
In this context, analysts speculate that the Russian president’s reasoning is elementary: Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use US missiles and artillery to hit targets inside Russia and defend the northeastern regions of Ukraine has certainly aggravated tensions, and these maneuvers military in the Caribbean can be seen as a tactic by Moscow to send a message of force, deterrence and threat that uses “asymmetric responses” and underline its influence in Latin America. The panorama evokes disturbing memories of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 , one of the most tense moments of the Cold War, when the world was on the verge of experiencing a nuclear conflict, due to the most famous naval blockade in history. It is true that decades after the aforementioned Cuban crisis, it seems that the great ones. powers act in a dramatic way so that new generations know first-hand the “ghost of the Cold War.”
Allies and sympathizers of Moscow in Latin America
To conclude, let us summarize what Moscow intends to demonstrate with these operations, which in our opinion have primarily a symbolic value. Without a doubt, confirming that it continues to be a global power and that it can intervene militarily with force and deterrence in scenarios far from its borders; provide an asymmetric response to the strong commitment of the United States to the war in Europe; respond with the same language to NATO that is simultaneously carrying out exercises near its borders. In reality, Washington has not considered these maneuvers as a direct threat, it has not attributed great importance to them, defining them as a propaganda response, which they would supervise without concern.
However, to understand Moscow’s actions/reactions on this continent, it is necessary to analyze the existing relations with South American governments. There are historical allies: Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Those who formally condemned Russian aggression, but in practice have strong feelings for Russia, such as Brazil and Mexico. Finally, those who most disapprove of Russian aggression: Chile and Uruguay. The invasion of Ukraine provoked rather cold condemnations and no country joined the sanctions imposed by the West. An important fact: none of the countries that possess Russian weapons have delivered/sold/donated equipment to the invaded country.
For the Kremlin anyway, Latin America is a clear opportunity to confirm its role as a world power and directly intimidate Washington. For its part, the relationship with Russia gives Latin America autonomy and strength against the US and China.
Ideological and pragmatic action
It is public knowledge that in recent years Russia had signed dozens of military, cultural and mutual assistance agreements with different countries in the region. The leftist governments of Brazil, Cuba, Mexico, Nicaragua and Venezuela have benefited from contracts for arms supplies, training and military assistance. Before committing itself to a long and costly war, Moscow had concentrated significant efforts on realizing its political and hegemonic ambitions with a strategy based on the use of the media, social networks, and diplomacy. Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs, visited Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba in April 2023, in the midst of the conflict. Its main purposes in Latin America were to obtain the necessary support to consolidate and reinforce its position on the continent, seeking to present itself as a reference country as an alternative to the European Union, the United States and mainly China, which for several years has been positioned as a privileged commercial partner in the Caribbean, Central and South America.
It is no coincidence that Russia’s actions on the continent have been defined as a “diplomatic offensive”: in an international system in transition still incapable of providing itself with a globally accepted and shared order, the great powers, or those countries that perceive it that way, , compete among themselves to gain allies, resources and exert their influence over countries whose position on the strategic board is still uncertain.
Although Russia has found broad acceptance in power among the Latin American left, which has been growing in recent elections (see Chile and Colombia), its action has not responded only to an ideological motivation, but to a pragmatic criterion. Aspire to support to generate an environment favorable to their interests that is also an obstacle for their competitors. In this sense, the excellent acceptance found in nations governed by “progressive” leaders allows it to establish themes of convergence and mark the path to increase its presence in these countries and on the continent.
