Two weeks before the British elections on July 4, two new polls, published this Wednesday, predict a historic victory for laborwho would obtain a large majority, with 425 or 516 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons.
According to a survey by the YouGov institute, the Labor opposition is expected to win 425 of the 650 seats in the UK Parliament, achieving “the largest number in the history of the party”, with a 39% of the votes.
In this way, the Labor leader, Keir Starmerwould be the next prime minister, ending 14 years of conservative governments.
The Conservative Party would take, according to this survey, 108 seats, losing 257 deputies with respect to the current composition of Parliament.
The Institute Savantafor its part, even puts the Labor victory at 516 seats, double those obtained by Tony Blair in 1997.
In this Savanta poll, the Conservatives would have only 53 seats, a crushing and unprecedented defeat for the party.
This survey conducted by Savanta for the newspaper Daily Telegraph even predicts that the conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak He could lose his seat in Richmond (Yorkshire) to the Labor Party, a situation never seen before for a head of government, although the projections are very close.
According to these two surveys, important figures in the conservative government, such as the finance ministers, Jeremy Huntdefense, Grant Shappsor Relations with Parliament, Penny Mordaunt, They would lose their seats.
The Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems), a centrist party, could become the third force in Parliament, with 67 seats, according to YouGov.
In this way, they would surpass the Scottish separatists of the SNP, in difficulties against the Labor Party, which would only have 20 seats in Westminster.
The match of far-right Reform UK, by europhobe Nigel Faragewhich has been rising in the polls, would obtain its first five seats in history, with 15% of the vote, including that of Clacton, in the east of England, where the party leader is running, according to YouGov.
Savanta, on the other hand, believes that Reform UK would not win any seats due to the one-round voting system in constituencies, thus registering the eighth defeat for Farage, who has been an MEP but has never sat in the British Parliament.
Savanta adds more than 100 seats have such narrow margins between candidates that they can go one way or the other.
The Welsh nationalist party would win four seats, while the ‘greens’ would win only two.
The British population is called to the polls on July 4 to vote in an early general election that is being held at a time when Sunak’s popularity is at historic lows, as well as that of the Conservative Party itself.
(With information from AFP and EP)
