The president of Venezuela and candidate for re-election, Nicolás Maduro (2-i), speaks with the president of the National Assembly of Venezuela (AN), Jorge Rodríguez (i), together with Cilia Flores upon leaving the National Electoral Council ( CNE) in Caracas (Venezuela).
Photo: EFE – MIGUEL GUTIERREZ
Venezuela’s authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, faces a decisive moment that will determine the fate of his presidency and the course of his troubled country.
On July 28, the leader of the nation with the world’s largest oil reserves — yet which has seen millions of its people flee amid a devastating economic crisis — will face his toughest electoral challenge since taking office. in 2013.
Polls show that his main opponent, a low-profile former diplomat named Edmundo González, has a wide lead.
González is backed by a fierce opposition leader, María Corina Machado, who has captivated voters as she travels across the country, campaigning for him with the promise of restoring democracy and reuniting families separated by migration.
On the other side is Maduro, a skilled political operator who for years has managed to overcome his unpopularity by tilting the electoral polls in his favor. He could use the same tactics to rip another victory.
However, there is a wild card: Maduro could also lose, negotiate a peaceful solution and hand over power.
Few Venezuelans expect Maduro to do that. Instead, political analysts, election experts, opposition figures and four former senior Maduro government officials interviewed by The New York Times believe, based on his record, that he is likely considering multiple options to retain power.
According to them, the Maduro government could disqualify González, or the parties he represents, and thus eliminate its only serious contender.
Maduro could allow the vote to pass, but use years of experience rigging elections in his favor to suppress turnout, confuse voters, and ultimately win.
But he could also cancel or postpone the elections, inventing a crisis – one option could be a growing border dispute with neighboring Guyana – as an excuse.
Finally, Maduro could simply manipulate the vote count, analysts and political figures said.
That happened in 2017, when the country held a vote to select a new political body to rewrite the Constitution. The company that provided the voting technology, Smartmatic, concluded that the results had been manipulated “without a doubt,” and that the Maduro government reported at least a million more votes than were actually cast. (Smartmatic cut its ties with the country).
Zair Mundaray, a former prosecutor during the Maduro government who left the country in 2017, said the country had reached a critical moment. Even Maduro’s supporters, he added, “are clear that he is in a minority.”
Whatever Maduro does, the elections will be closely watched by the US government, which has long tried to get him out of power, saying it wants to promote democracy in the region, but also look for a friendly business partner. oil.
In recent months, the Biden administration’s desire to improve economic conditions inside Venezuela has intensified as hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have moved north, creating a huge political challenge for President Joe Biden on the eve of his inauguration. candidacy for re-election.
Maduro has made clear that he has no intention of losing the election, accusing his opponents of plotting a “coup” against him and telling a crowd of supporters at a campaign event that “we are going to win by beating”. When that happens, he said, his opponents will surely say there was fraud.
Representatives of the Ministry of Popular Power for Communication and Information and the National Electoral Council did not respond to requests for comment.
Maduro, 61, came to power after the death of Hugo Chávez, the charismatic founder of Venezuela’s socialist project.
Maduro, who was vice president, was chosen by Chávez in 2013 as his successor. But many Venezuelans predicted that he would fail, claiming that he lacked the oratory skills, political astuteness, military ties and public voter loyalty that his predecessor had.
They were wrong.
Maduro has survived a prolonged economic crisis in which year-over-year inflation soared to 65,000 percent; several cycles of protests at the national level; a series of coup d’état and assassination attempts; and an effort in 2019 by a young congressman named Juan Guaidó to install a parallel government within the country.
Maduro has managed to avoid any opposition within the ranks of his own inner circle. Furthermore, he has dodged the punishment of US sanctions by strengthening trade ties with Iran, Russia and China and, according to the International Crisis Group, by allowing top military commanders and other allies to enrich themselves through drug trafficking and illegal mining.
Despite its poor poll numbers, “it has never been stronger than it is now,” Michael Shifter, a longtime Latin America expert, wrote last year in Foreign Affairs magazine.
But elections, held every six years, have emerged as perhaps their biggest challenge.
The government is already trying to influence the vote in favor of the president.
The millions of Venezuelans who have fled to other countries — many of whom would likely vote against him — have faced enormous obstacles to registering to vote. For example, some Venezuelan officials abroad have refused to accept certain common visas as proof of emigrants’ residency, according to a coalition of rights groups.
Election experts and opposition activists say that 3.5 million to 5.5 million Venezuelans eligible to vote currently live outside the country, or up to a quarter of the total electorate of 21 million people. But only 69,000 Venezuelans abroad have been able to register to vote.
Watchdog organizations say denying such a large number of citizens the right to vote constitutes widespread voter fraud.
Within the country, efforts are also underway to hinder voting.
The People’s Ministry of Education reported in April that it was changing the names of more than 6,000 schools, which are typically voting centers, possibly complicating voters’ efforts to find their assigned polling places.
Among the lesser-known parties in an already complicated vote — voters will choose from 38 boxes with the candidates’ faces — is one that uses a nearly identical name, as well as similar colors, to those of the largest opposition coalition. supports González, which could dilute his votes.
Perhaps Maduro’s most important electoral machination was using his control over the judicial system to prevent the opposition’s most popular figure, Machado, from running for president. But even so, Machado has mobilized his popularity to undertake the electoral campaign alongside González.
According to the opposition, Maduro’s government has persecuted those working on the campaign: 37 opposition activists have been detained or had to go into hiding to avoid arrests since January, according to González.
International electoral observation will be minimal. After the government rescinded the European Union’s offer to observe the election, only one major independent organization will monitor the vote: the Atlanta-based Carter Center.
Luis Lander, director of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, an independent organization, said in an interview that the elections were already qualifying as one of the most flawed in the country in the last 25 years.
Maduro has raised the salaries of public workers, announced new infrastructure projects and increased his presence on social networks. The economy has improved slightly. The president has also been on the campaign trail, dancing with voters across the country, presenting himself as the funny grandfather of socialism and mocking those who doubted him.
His constant argument is that the sanctions imposed by the United States are the main cause of Venezuela’s economic problems. The country’s socialist movement, despite economic difficulties, remains deeply rooted.
During its best years, the movement lifted millions out of poverty and has a powerful communication arm: many will vote for the socialist cause, even if they find fault with Maduro.
“This is not about a man, but about a project,” Giovanny Erazo, 42, said at a recent campaign event.
Others might cast their vote in favor of Maduro believing it will help their families. Faithful supporters have been receiving boxes of food for years.
Even if Maduro were to sabotage the vote, it is unclear whether that would lead to the kind of social unrest that could oust him from office.
At least 270 people have died in protests since 2013, according to data from the human rights organization Provea, leaving many afraid to take to the streets. Many of the people fed up with Maduro have already voted with their feet, by leaving the country.
Some analysts said that if Maduro were to lose on July 28, he could work with Gonzalez to negotiate a favorable outcome. The president is wanted in the United States on drug trafficking charges and is under investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. He would like to go to a country where he would be protected from such legal problems.
But Manuel Christopher Figuera, former director of Venezuela’s national intelligence service, said this is an unlikely scenario. “Maduro knows that if he hands over power, even if he could negotiate an escape, the rest of the gang cannot.”
Figuera fled to the United States in 2019, after being part of a failed coup launched by a faction of the party of Guaidó, the former deputy who presided over a parallel government.
Luisa Ortega, who was the country’s attorney general under Chávez and Maduro — but left the country in 2017, after criticizing the government — warned of a “fatal triumphalism” among people in the opposition.
“An avalanche of votes against Maduro” could defeat him at the polls, he stated. “And it doesn’t become a success for us.”
Isayen Herrera and María Victoria Fermín contributed reporting from Caracas, Venezuela, and Genevieve Glatsky from Bogotá, Colombia.
