By Luis Beatón. Latin American Summary, June 27, 2024.
Trump will not be able to attack Biden for changing the policy towards Cuba, since the 243 measures applied by the Republican leader remain in force, all of them in addition to the suffocating economic, commercial and financial blockade imposed against the island for more than 60 years. Something never seen before in history.
Time passes and there is no looking back. For more than 60 years, the Cuba issue played a role in the elections in United States, not to the size of the migration crises, the tense relations with Russia and China, unemployment or the economy, but it was always there, giving a weight to Florida that it never really had, except when it became the “Banana Republic” after George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore, leaving a smell of fraud and electoral robbery, in which a machine of right-wing Cuban-Americans played an important role above the will of the popular vote.
Bush defeated his rival despite having nearly half a million fewer popular votes. This is the politics of this country that tries to teach “democracy” to the world.
With just five months to go until the November presidential election, in which Democrat Joe Biden will try to repeat his 2020 victory when he became the 46th president of the United States, the scene is turbulent with Trump almost dressed in orange and a Biden who, apparently, is playing a trick on age.
There are various criteria that put Biden on the brink of defeat and others that bet on a debate that will take place on Thursday, June 27, where the current tenant of the White House He is risking everything, in a scenario that according to Van Jones, a former advisor to the former president Barack Obamaanticipates that if he makes a major mistake in the debate, his future in the rest of the campaign for re-election will be over.
The expert said in an intervention on the television network cnn that much of Biden’s chances of beating Trump in the November election will depend on the image he projects during the 90 minutes when he is once again face to face with his bitter political adversary. “The whole world will be watching,” and for some, what comes out that day will be a preview of the November result.
If Biden comes out and messes up, it’s game overIf he leaves and a week later he is lower in the polls, there will be panic in the (Democratic) party, he said.
Van Jones warned that the 81-year-old Democrat will face the fury of an adversary focused on destroying him in front of the public, But if he manages to send a message where he exhibits the necessary vigor to contain it by being more intelligent, then he will project himself towards a victory in the ballots, since it will dispel all doubts.
Although in recent weeks some videos have been released in which Biden’s possible cognitive deterioration is allegedly observed, the Tennessee advisor does not rule out that it is all a strategy based on selling the idea of a character nothing like the one he will stand in front of. to television cameras next week.
This is the situation that exists in an environment where other issues take a backseat.
For example, Trump will not be able to attack Biden for changing the policy towards Cuba, since the 243 measures applied by the Republican leader remain in force, all of them in addition to the suffocating economic, commercial and financial blockade imposed against the island for more than 60 years. Something never seen before in history.
So far the polls point to a victory for Trump but there are scenarios that can influence the results in addition to Biden managing to improve his image in the debate.
For example, this broad context includes large groups of voters from states in the South, Midwest, and predominantly agricultural areas that vote predominantly for the Reds, such as in Minnesota, Arkansas, and Kansas, and who view with concern curbs imposed on the trade of products with other nations and those that Biden does not count on because they would be pro-Trump.
Cuba and the rural vote in the United States
Part of this sector needs the Cuban market to cope with the fall in its income and, except for some visits by farmers and congressmen to Havana, Biden did not have a projection in his policy so as not to disillusion his alleged followers of the so-called “Cuban” of Florida.
With falling domestic demand, higher produce prices and competition from foreign producers already hurting our farmers, retaliatory tariffs on agricultural exports from China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Turkey are a additional weight for our producers and producers, estimate various sectors linked to agriculture.
They warn veiledly that “American farmers are tough patriots, but they need strong export revenues to stay in business.”
Building new export outlets for American farmers and allied industries became an imperative, and Cuba should be part of that mix, something Biden apparently never considered.
The Cuban market is just around the corner, the island is drowning due to the lack of investment, credit and businesses that, for example, would allow for million-dollar profits for the soybean, livestock and pork production sectors, among others.
In the case of Cuba, which offers a significant growth opportunity just 90 miles away and a short container shipping trip from U.S. ports on the Gulf and East Coast, A different solution is needed, which Biden does not see and is carried away by the desires to strangle the island’s economy promoted by senators such as Marcos Rubio (R) and Robert Menéndez (D) and representatives such as María Elvira Salazar (R), among others.
Sources linked to the US agricultural sector estimate that Cuba is one of the few foreign markets where the potential for US agricultural growth is quantifiable and achievable. That island, they emphasize, spends more than two billion a year on agricultural imports to feed its 11 million people and three million tourists annually, a sector in full development in which Washington must play a leading role due to its great potential.
In favor of this business, they point out that most of the island’s imports come from Vietnam, China, the European Union and other far-off places, where transport rates are many times higher than those in the United States.
Arkansas, for example, is the country’s number one rice exporter and Cuba has the highest per capita rice consumption in the Western Hemisphere.
However, since fiscal year 2009, Cuba does not import any significant amount of American rice, when this country reached almost 40 percent of the market share in fiscal year 2004, something that was lost to Vietnam and Brazil, which offered credits to the island.
In Minnesota, U.S. soybean exports could mean combined sales of up to $14 million and corn sales could reach up to $16 million, among other possible sales.
On the other hand, many of Kansas’ main agricultural products are basic imports for Cuba. Kansas exports more than 800 million annually in wheat, but there is practically no wheat trade between that state and the Caribbean nation.
All this potential is being thwarted by outdated financing rules on agricultural sales to alleged “state sponsors” of terrorism, that arbitrary list in which the White House includes Havana and which hinders all trade, while northern sectors call for “positioning American farmers as the number one agricultural supplier for Cuba.”
The issue of Cuba and trade, although not as relevant as others that are now putting pressure on the two candidates in the ring, is something that Trump could consider in order to strengthen and consolidate his political support bases in the rural sector, traditionally inclined towards the red, Republican party.
Expanded access for U.S. agriculture to Cuba and other new outlets is a matter of economic health, as well as survival, for rural America. Only Trump, not Biden, can take the step to consolidate support in rural America, where his most loyal supporters are found.
The cards will be on the table. Expectations are high. The world will be watching on Thursday, June 27 in Atlanta. That’s where Biden or Trump will be decided. The American agribusiness, and why not the Cubans, will be waiting to see which way the balance will tip on November 5.
Source: Al Mayadeen
