Alarm bells have gone off in the Democratic Party following Joe Biden’s more than dubious performance in the presidential debate. The current president was outdone by his Republican challengerformer President Donald Trump, who mocked on camera his slowness and at times unintelligible words.
Biden is the longest-serving president in American history. He arrived at the White House at 78 (surpassing Donald Trump’s 70 in 2016), will turn 82 two weeks after the election and aspires to govern until January 2028. By then, she will be 86 years old.
Could your candidacy fail? Like every president who is up for re-election, he had no rivals in the primaries. Formally, he has not yet been inaugurated as a candidate, something that should materialize in August at the Democratic Party Convention in Chicago. Almost a month and a half left: The Democratic formula will emerge from this conclave, but there are already rumors about whether Biden will lead it.
Biden’s decision and the role of delegates
There will be 3,934 delegates at the Convention. The 1,968 vote is needed to anoint the candidate. A Biden without competition in merely testimonial primaries has 2,491 of his own delegateswhose vote is non-transferable. The party’s statute states that “delegates elected to the national convention who are committed to a presidential candidate shall conscientiously reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”
A prior step is needed for the delegates’ vote to be turned: for the candidate to withdraw. If Biden makes that explicit, the door opens for the delegates to give the majority vote to another name. Therein lies the dilemma: the resignation could be a demonstration that the second Catholic president in the country’s history (the first was John Kennedy) not only is not fit to compete, but that Furthermore, he would not be qualified to hold the position at this time..
Added to this is the fact that there is little time left to make a decision and each day that passes reduces the possibilities after the impact of the debate. Biden reappeared this Friday, appeared confident and received the support of X from Barack Obama, who implicitly recognized the poor performance of his former vice president against Trump, but he stated that the country cannot be governed by the magnate againwho is facing a court conviction and the mark of not having acknowledged his defeat in 2020 and instigating the unprecedented assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Names in dance
If the scenario of Biden’s resignation from the candidacy is consummated, the impact would be less based on two elements combined: that the decision be made as soon as possible and that his replacement be announced immediately and be a name with a chance of success.
At first glance, Kamala Harris emergesShe is the vice president and could be a candidate as a matter of respecting the order of succession. She is the first woman to hold that position, she is African-American and the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India. In addition, she supports a progressive agenda that contrasts with the ultraconservatism that surrounds Trump.
Another name that is gaining strength is that of Gavin Newsomgovernor of California since 2019. He was a staunch opponent of state restrictions against the voluntary interruption of pregnancy, is in favor of the rights of immigrants and was in favor of the legalization of cannabis in his state.
Reagan and Eagleton
The Biden case presents two precedents. One was in 1984. Ronald Reagan He crushed Walter Mondale (former vice president under Jimmy Carter) to win re-election, but there were doubts about his candidacy at the age of 73. He was already showing signs of fatigue and was carrying the wounds from the 1981 assassination attempt, when he was shot by John Hinckley.
In one of the debates with Mondale, the topic came up for discussion. Faced with this proposition, Reagan offered a memorable solution: “I will not make the issue of age a campaign issue. I will not exploit my rival’s youth and inexperience for political purposes”.
The second case was more dramatic. It happened in 1972. Senator Thomas Eagleton of Missouri was George McGovern’s choice as his running mate to face Richard Nixon.. Eagleaton was depressed and had a history of psychiatric hospitalizations that included electroshock. Two weeks after the Democratic Convention, that information came to light. Eagleton resigned from the candidacy and remained in the Senate until 1987.
In a few days we will know if Biden follows the path of Reagan in 1984 or if he emulates Senator Eaglaton.
