The greenback closed at a step away from $40 and exceeded the expectations of the vast majority of analysts consulted by the Central Bank of Uruguay.
The dollar closed near 40 pesos and is above the value expected by economic agents.
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He dollar It closed this Friday at 39,989 pesos and reached seven-month highs, thus being 1.75% above what the market expected for the end of the month, according to data from the Economic Expectations Survey (EEA) of Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
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Although the analysts and specialists consulted by the BCU revised their forecasts on the value of the exchange rate Between May and June, the monthly increase of 3.09% exceeded almost all forecasts.
It is that the median of the EEE responses was a dollar at 39.30 pesos for today. However, among the 20 respondents, the maximum expected price was 40 pesos, just 11 cents above what actually occurred, while the minimum was 38 pesos.
With its current value, the greenback was one step away from the level that the market It waits for November, since it is expected to be at 40 pesos within six months, an adjustment of 1.14% compared to last month’s forecasts.
Meanwhile, the correction on the expectations for the last exchange day of 2024. With a rise of 0.37%, economic agents expect that the US currency will end the year at 40.15 pesos.
What does the market expect about economic activity?
With respect to economic activity, Analysts projected growth of GDP of 3.35%, slightly below the 3.49% they anticipated last month. Among the most optimistic, the highest response was that GDP will increase by 5%, while the lowest projection was 2.8%.
One piece of information that the survey incorporated was that of expected growth for the second quarter of this year, for which the expectation is that the year-on-year increase will be 3.15%. Finally, for both 2025 and 2026 they expect an increase in the order of 2.5%, an estimate that extends over the average of the next five years.
