The amount traded in the wholesale market remained weak this Friday, with USD 297.6 million in the cash segment, almost the same figure as Thursday, while the BCRA won USD 144 million for its exchange intervention, 48.4% of the total negotiated.
Throughout the week the monetary entity absorbed USD 590 million -there was no business on Wednesday the 1st-, while since Monday, December 11, it made net purchases for USD 15,046 million in almost five months. The Central Bank only made sales in four operational wheels during that period since Santiago Bausili assumed the presidency of the organization.
Since Javier Milei When the government came to power, the entity is buying more than half of the dollars that the private sector liquidates in the exchange market. In April he accumulated a positive balance with his intervention USD 3,348 million, in the sixth month with positive results. In addition, it was the best month for the Central intervention since September 2022, when the first version of the “soybean” dollar was applied.
On the other hand, the International reserves grew by USD 184 millionto 28,374 million of dollars. Gross reserves lost some USD 1,763 million during the week, basically due to the payment made to the IMF on Tuesday the 30th. Under the administration of La Libertad Avanza this stock increases by USD 7,166 million (+33.8%) from USD 21,208 million on December 7.
“Beyond the recent delay, it is estimated that liquidations could gain a greater pace soon and thus sustain the level of BCRA purchases even amid greater participation by importers. The renewed lowering of rates sparked, as it did in the past, a rearrangement of financial dollars, although said slide would be limited and orderly within a stage of seasonal greater supply of foreign currency, even if some bets could be closed towards the carry-trade”he commented Gustavo Bereconomist at Estudio Ber.
With 131 positive votes, 117 negative votes and 4 abstentions, the Chamber of Deputies approved this week the Asset Regularization Regimethe name chosen by the national government for the project money laundering. Precisely, the regularization of those dollars, which in part could return to the financial system, would contribute not only to the growth of deposits and, indirectly, to the BCRA’s reserves, it would also shore up the decaying stock of credit.
For the experts of the IEB Group (Invest in the Stock Market), a “point of conflict turned out to be money laundering, with questions from the opposition focusing on the limit of exclusion of officials and former officials, the inclusion of non-residents, and the lack of investigation into the origin of the funds. money. The regime establishes a deadline to join until April 30, 2025, with the possibility of extension until July 31 of the same year, offering the possibility of entering the system up to USD 100,000 at no cost, and even the possibility of entering larger amounts. with zero rate, subject to special conditions. In general, the entry of amounts greater than the previously mentioned will imply the collection of rates of between 5% and 15% based on the moment of adhesion to the regime. It remains to be seen if on this occasion the money laundering will be as successful as that of the Cambiemos government, with more than USD 100,000 million regularized.”
On the other hand, the Central Bank resolved on Thursday lower the interest rate reference of 60% to 50% annual nominal, based on the disinflation path. In this way, the profitability of positions in local currency such as fixed terms was also reduced.
“This measure is part of the economic stabilization plan, whose main objective is to reduce inflation. Therefore, it is likely that this policy will be maintained until significant improvements are observed in inflation indicators and economic stability is consolidated, which could not occur until the end of 2024,” he stated. Norberto Saracenipartner of the consulting firm BakerTilly.
