The volume operated in the cash segment of the wholesale market reached USD 374.1 million this Wednesday, with purchases made by the Central Bank for USD 231 million, 61.7% of the total businesses. It was the largest amount of official purchases since April 22.
The entity raised the absorption of foreign currency to USD 820 million in the first tranche of May. Since Monday, December 11, BCRA made net purchases for USD 15,573 million in almost five months. The entity only made sales in four operational wheels during that period since Santiago Bausili assumed the presidency of the organization.
On the other hand, the international reserves gained USD 244 millionto 28,032 million, in a wheel with slight declines for the Chinese yuan (-0.1%) and gold (-0.2%) against the US dollar. Under the administration of La Libertad Avanza this stock increases by USD 6,824 million (+32.2%) from USD 21,208 million on December 7.
“After the expected delays, in the end the pace of settlements would be accelerating, which would allow in the coming weeks to boost BCRA purchases and thus the reserve accumulation process. Given this, financial dollars are once again under more pressure due to the supply of the ‘blend’, a dynamic that would last for the next two months and would extend the exchange rate calm beyond the successive rate cuts,” the economist noted. Gustavo Ber.
Roman Danteprofessor and researcher at the Center for Agribusiness and Food of the Austral University, stated that soybean marketing was more active than previous weeks – reaching average levels for the time of year in the week ending April 24 -, “but given “We have been dragging months of purchases below the usual, in total we are at less than 8% of the production projection against the 18% historical average at this time of year.”
“With the statistics already available for the first quarter, considering the latest estimates of volumes to be harvested and taking as a reference the expected prices for the remainder of the year (FOB Buenos Aires Grain Exchange), it is estimated that gross grain exports and main industrial derivatives would be approaching USD 32.1 billion in 2024, growing 26% compared to 2023 (+USD 6.5 billion), a percentage that does not seem so impressive given the significant recovery in volumes, but is explained by a significant decline in international prices. If soybean imports are netted in this account, shipments would total USD 29.6 billion and the improvement amounts to 48% year-on-year, with an extra foreign exchange income that is in the order of USD 9.6 billion,” he stated. Franco Artussoeconomist at IERAL of the Mediterranean Foundation.
“The timing of the positive impact of the larger harvest on the economy depends on the entry of the grains into the commercial circuit, that is, on the producer’s sales decision. What is being observed is a very slow marketing of the harvest for now. In the case of soybeans, only 5% of the expected volume had been sold at the end of March, a low percentage considering a historical range of between 10% and 20%. In the first week of April, marketing showed acceleration, going from 320,000 tons to 750,000 tons per week (sales operations with a fixed price), a good figure for an average of 650,000 tons in recent years. Something similar appears in corn: as of March, 14% of the expected harvest had been sold, below the historical average range (between 20% and 30%), and sales accelerated in the first week of April (470,000 tons to 816,000 tons),” added Artusso.
