He Dolar blue It is sold this Thursday without changes, for $1,250 in the caves of downtown Buenos Aires. In the stock market segment, the dollar counted with settlement is traded at $1,304 and the MEP is offered at $1,280.
In an economic and political context marked by volatility, the analysts surveyed by iProfessional They put the magnifying glass on the recent rise in financial dollars. The question that arises is whether this volatility will have direct consequences on consumer prices. Although it cannot be completely ruled out, there is a portion of importers who chose to dispense with the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC) and access Cash with Settlement (CCL) to make their payments to foreign suppliers.
The majority of those who still resort to official wholesale market They obtain foreign currency in installments, between 30 and 120 days after the merchandise enters the country. However, a wider exchange gap could fuel expectations of devaluation and, as a consequence, cause internal price increases in pesos to cover a greater perceived risk.
Despite four months of disinflation, the high frequency inflation data show that consistently breaking through the 1% weekly barrier is not an easy task. Although it is still early to sound the alarm about inflationary inertia, the month of June will provide more indications in this regard.
In the short term, the exchange rate regime remains unchanged. Sources close to Treasury Palace They denied that a 20% increase in exports settled in the CCL is being analyzed to encourage the sale of the harvest. Despite the slow marketing of the coarse harvest, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) continues to buy foreign currency in the spot market.
Beyond the flows, the fundamentals have not collaborated either. He political noise In recent days, it is added to the half-sanction in Deputies of a new retirement mobility formula, which puts the sustainability of the fiscal adjustment in check.
The city warns about the impact of the rise in free dollars on inflation
Inflation and the danger of pass through
Behind the strong rise in financial dollars, According to a report by the consulting firm 1816, we must begin to analyze whether the volatility in the financial dollar will have its correlation in consumer prices, “something that cannot be completely ruled out” considering that (there is a small portion (but not trivial) of importers who have already chosen to dispense with the MULC and access the CCL to make their payments to foreign suppliers.
Furthermore, specialists pointed out that the majority who continue to resort to official wholesale market accesses foreign currency in installments (between 30 and 120 days after the merchandise enters the country) and a higher gap could fuel expectations of devaluation (and increases in internal prices in Pesos to cover a greater perceived risk).
For now, they observed that the inflation data High-frequency data show that, after four months of a clear disinflation process, it is not being easy to consistently pierce 1% weekly inflation. However, they indicated that “it is still early” to sound the alarm about inflationary inertia, a risk that Domingo Cavallo warned about in his blog, but during the course of the month of June there will be more indications in this regard.
“In the immediate future, the exchange rate regime is not modified and Juan Pazo, secretary of the Mecon, denied that they are analyzing increasing the 20% of exports that are settled in the CCL to encourage the sale of the harvest. The bulk is being sold at a unusually slow pace. Despite this, the BCRA continues to buy currencies practically in the spot,” they pointed out.
Along the same lines, according to the ALyC Grupo SBS, flows are fundamental and must be followed closely, given that the “dollar blend” It is what has allowed, among other factors, the exchange rate calm in recent months. This factor is key given that it is one of the variables that explains why trust in the government has not fallen too much in these months (the ICG-UTDT pointed to an increase in May, with the survey carried out between the 3rd and 14th of the month ).
“As for inflation, the high-frequency data that we monitor suggests that, although the inflation would have slowed in May, it has not yet managed to decisively penetrate the level of 0.9-1.0% weekly.
After four months of a clear disinflation process, the government is not finding it easy to consistently pierce inflation of 1% weekly.
Exporters’ supply slows down
According to a report from the brokerage company Portfolio Personal Inversiones, the volume operated in the spot dollar market in MAEa proxy for exporters’ supply in the MULC, fell sharply.
“Despite the lower supply in the MULC, The BCRA continues buying, but at a slower pace. Yesterday it acquired US$48 million, which led the five-day moving average to sink to US$35 million, the second lowest amount in the Milei administration, being above the US$23 million reached on May 31,” they commented.
For the broker, they considered that behind the slowdown in the supply of exporters, both the lower spread between the interest rate in pesos and the crawling peg, which translates into a lower cost of leverage, and the greater exchange gap would be discouraging. liquidation.
“Paradoxically, given that the 80/20% scheme is still in place, the lower supply from exporters feeds back to the rise in the CCL and, therefore, the widening of the gap,” they explained.
Beyond the flows, according to the brokerage company, the fundamentals “did not collaborate either,” since the political noise of recent days was added to the half-sanction in Deputies of a new pension mobility formula that puts the sustainability of the fiscal adjustment in check.
How much is the blue dollar trading at today?
The blue dollar is located at $1,250 for sale and $1,220 for purchase.
How financial dollars operate
In the stock market segment, the dollar counted with settlement is traded at $1,304 and the MEP was offered at $1,280.
What is the price of the official dollar
The price of the retail dollar of Banco Nación starts at $918.
The wholesale dollar is trading at an average of $898.50.
For its part, the solidarity dollar and card dollar stand at $1,468.80.
The exchange gap
Finally, the exchange gap between the wholesale dollar and the different exchange rates is as follows:
- Blue: 39%
- CCL: 45%
- MEP: 43%
