The always risky but equally tempting strategy of “carry trade” It once again generated the usual disappointments for those who leave this scheme late. The rebirth of the dollar after several aggressive interest rate cuts by the Central Bank caused, as usual, the shutter to close suddenly and without prior warning. May was the watershed that cut off more than five months of gains in dollars that disappeared, at least partially, in a matter of a few days.
He carry It consists, in simple terms, of pursuing profits in dollars by betting on interest rates in pesos. If the performance in local currency exceeds the movement of the price of the currency, in this case the financial versions such as the MEP dollar or the counted dollar with settlement, the investor who resorted to that strategy has greater purchasing power measured in dollars at the end of the year. trade.
After the devaluation of the official in December, the history of the carry It was more than positive for those who turned to it.
An economist’s calculation Nery Persichini of GMA Capital took the Badlar rate for fixed terms to calculate the fate of placements in pesos so far during the presidency of Javier Milei and found that they earned 37% in cash settlement dollars before the curtain closed.
The Badlar rate of Fixed deadlines It does not reflect, perhaps, the most practical carry instrument. In general, these strategies tend to be located in shorter-term assets in order to be able to get out quickly when, sooner or later, the music stops and you have to find a chair to sit on.
May was the watershed that cut off more than five months of gains in dollars that disappeared, at least partially, in a matter of a few days
Sureties, securities in pesos with a secondary market, common funds and other short-term placements allow you to exit and enter more quickly. But for comparison, the fixed-term rate serves as a reference for how yields in pesos fared compared to the dollar.
Rates of 8% per month were not difficult to obtain until early May in any of these placements. And even when the Central Bank faced an accelerated reduction in rates, until April it was possible to achieve returns that were close to 5% monthly. Not bad against a dollar counted with settlement that in April, for example, rose 0.6% in total.
But April was the last sweet month for the financial bike. May, with lower rates in pesos in between, was the moment that marked the abrupt end that these strategies usually have,
The fixed rate Lecap issued by the Treasury lost 5.6% compared to cash with settlement. The CER securities lost 5.8%, the Badlar of private banks lost 9.4% and the stock bond – a kind of fixed term in the Stock Market – 9.5%. Only the Merval index remained above the water level.
April was the last sweet month for the financial bike
The first week of June did not change the fortunes of yields in pesos. With rates below 2.5%, cash with settlement rose 5.2 percent in just five days.
Thus, the race between the dollar and the rate showed several months of profits for those who bet on the carry but, as usual, an abrupt end to the strategy. However, at the end of May, GMA capital data shows that the loss is not total.
Always taking the Badlar fixed term rate At the end of May, so far in the Milei era, the carry has been gaining 16% in dollars. A very negative week for local assets means, once again, it is only for the brave to bet on this type of strategies again. Although technical signs may indicate that if you want to take risk, perhaps it is now.
So far in the Milei era, the carry has been gaining 16% in dollars
“The main financial dollar was one step away from once again exceeding its average value of the last 10 years of $1,308 in constant pesos. Likewise, we highlight that, after yesterday’s rebound, the CCL was just 3.9% below the exchange rate implicit in the first Bopreal Series 3 tender of $1,347 nominal, which could be a ceiling,” he analyzed. Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) after the first negative wheels of the week.
“It should be remembered that the rally which occurred between May 20 and 22 (14% increase) was cut off when the CCL was 6.8% below this threshold. Will the proximity to this level once again encourage aggressive profiles to rearrange their strategies? carry trade like what happened a couple of days ago?”, the analysts of the stock exchange company asked themselves before warning: “The strong increases in recent weeks served as a reminder that it is not a strategy for everyone and that you can lose the profits of the carry of several months in just a pair of wheels.”
