The blue dollar sets a new nominal record, rises 20 pesos on the day and reaches $1,300, while the government blames the opposition for the escalation of the informal. “It is a reaction to the political obstacles,” Economy Minister Luis Caputo said this morning, referring to the setbacks that the Bases Law encounters to advance in Congress.
The informal threads his fifth consecutive increase and is in line with the rise that financial dollars had in the first days of the month. Thus, while the MEP and cash with liquid increased 5%, blue climbs 6%.
There are several reasons behind the recomposition of blue. These are the three reasons main.
The end of the nap
Until mid-May, the blue dollar was flat. had gone up only 10% in four and a half months, while in that period inflation had risen 70%. Something similar had been happening with financial dollars, which also began to react that month, in the middle of a lower reserve accumulation from the Central Bank.
The delays in the liquidation of the field limited the supply in the market and this reheated the perception that the official dollar was behind and that the Central would have fewer chances in the future to control the devaluation rate. At current levels, blue increased 30% since the beginning of the year.
The lowering of rates
Last month the Central Bank lowered the reference interest rate, which today is 40% annually. So, Fixed terms in pesos pay a monthly interest of less than 3%, below inflation. Given this, those who seek to defend the purchasing power of the pesos reject term placements, even in digital wallets that provide immediate availability of funds, and They begin to turn to the dollar again.
This is enhanced by a certain recomposition of income, which in the last two months has been rising slightly above inflation. Although this does not compensate for the loss of purchasing power throughout 2024, In some sectors of the population it gives room for a certain savings capacity.
In this way, the trend that was occurring in the first part of the year is reversed, when Argentines They went out to sell the “joint” to face inflation that was beating down salaries. This caused supply to increase in the summer in a scenario with sunk demand. Now, demand is beginning to recover, without major changes in supply.
The political tension
The Government’s difficulties in advancing the projects it considers central to the changes it seeks to implement increase uncertainty in the market. Six months into his mandate, Javier Milei was unable to get Congress to approve any law and demonstrated little ability to generate consensus with the opposition.
In the markets this translated into increases in country riskwhich last Thursday touched 1,600 basis points, a fall in bonds and stocks and a rise in financial dollars.
The blue is the last transmission cable of this tension and the reflection that if the Government does not obtain the approval of the Bases Law, the chances that these variables will have greater pressures increase and this stick on the official dollar.
