Hear
“It is a key week,” say market analysts. After a month of financial turbulence, this Wednesday The Senate will debate the Base Law and the tax reform, news that will determine whether the Government will be able to face some of the structural reforms that it has on the agenda since it took office last December 10. In this scenario of expectation and caution, waiting to know if the Executive will achieve the necessary support to approve the initiative, Today the blue dollar is close to $1300.
In the caves and trees that operate in the City of Buenos Aires, the parallel exchange rate rises $15 (+1.2%) and is sold at $1295, although in the first negotiations of the day it reached $1,300. This is the highest nominal value on record, after exceeding the $1,280 that it marked both yesterday and on May 23.
“Producers would be postponing the sale of their stocks to exporters due to a low cost of leverage, a greater exchange rate gap and the expectation of an increase in international prices of the commodities. Therefore, farm dollars could appear with the right incentives (maybe a bigger spread rate-crawling that makes leverage more expensive and a smaller gap or even an eventual exit from the stocks), mitigating the typical decumulation of reserves in the third quarter,” they highlighted from the Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI).
Field settlements mark the trend of financial exchange rates, since exporters can liquidate 20% of their sales in this way, which increases the supply of foreign currency and causes the price of the CCL to fall. The remaining 80% have to be channeled through the wholesale exchange rate, at $902.50.
Although the field is in full harvest, the numbers are below what analysts estimated. Yesterday, without going any further, The offer from the exporters in the financiers was US$30 million, close to the minimum of Javier Milei’s administration.
This Tuesday, however, financial exchange rates do not present major variations. He MEP dollar through the purchase and sale of bonds GD30 is trading at $1,273.60, just $1 more than yesterday (+0.1%). He cash with settlement (CCL) It is trading at $1,302.52, a daily decline of $4.9 (-0.4%).
The treatment of the Bases Law will not be the only important event that will occur this week and that will mark the mood of the main financial assets. Today the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, confirmed that he will negotiate a new program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with the aim of receiving fresh funds. That same day, the Indec will announce the inflation for May, and the Central Bank (BCRA) will decide if there will be changes in the monetary policy interest rate.
However, despite the fact that yesterday investors were optimistic and that allowed both bonds and Argentine stocks to rebound, today the numbers in red return to the screens. The Buenos Aires stock market falls 0.8%, explained by the fall in the shares of YPF (-2%), Telecom Argentina (-2%) and Banco Macro (+1.9%).
“In dollars, the Merval fell 14% from recent highs. This drawdown It is in line with other previous corrections, which were around 15%, such as in April-May 2023 and August 2023, and extended somewhat more compared to others that were between 10-15%, such as in January, February and April of this year. That is to say, it was a ‘panic’ in line with others seen previously, and the -15% zone seems to function as a technical floor to regain positions. However, it is worth noting that this week is marked by the negotiations on the Bases Law in the Senate,” they noted from Delphos Investment.
The negative trend can also be observed among Argentine stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The papers of Take off fell 2.2%, followed by Macro Bank (-2.2%), YPF (-1.8%) and Pampa Energy (-1.6%).
The bonuses from the last debt exchange they fall, in all their legislations and maturities. The Bonares fell 2.48% (AL35D) and the Globals, up to 3.04% (GD41D). This again pushes risk country towards the rise and stands at 1,517 basis points, some 29 units more than yesterday (+1.95%).
THE NATION
