In the midst of such a changing situation in both the Argentine economy and politics, the experts’ magnifying glass is placed on the highest price the dollar can reach in the coming months, taking into account that the period of high foreign exchange settlement from the field harvest is coming to an end and that the accumulation of reserves may suffer. Thus, according to the latest analyst projections, the exchange rate is at the center of the scene and It can reach up to $2,100 in December.
The current situation shows encouraging data with a inflation that fell to 4.2% last month, to which is added the confirmation of a new credit from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ease the payment of upcoming debt commitments, and the extension of the swap with China, something that takes pressure off the Central Bank with reserves.
Added to this, from a political point of view, is the fact that the Bases Law has just been approved in the Senate, a fact that could give impetus to the arrival of investments into the country from abroad.
Therefore, they register different positive and negative conditions that, according to how they evolve in the short and medium term, they will bid the rest of the year on the price of the dollar, beyond The Government came out to clarify that from the official segment it will maintain the current slow devaluation (crawling peg) of 2% monthly.
Although, since economists’ projectionsthere may be a jump at the end of the year and the highest price for the official wholesale exchange rate can be up to $2,100 for December coming, a figure estimated by the international firm S&P Global Ratings, and which maintains the line considered by the forecasts made in recent months.
Highest Dollar Price Considered
Based on this highest official wholesale dollar price that the analysts surveyed by the June FocusEconomics world report project for the end of the year, the devaluation for All of 2024 could reach a maximum of 160%because it is expected that the exchange market will be unified around December.
This highest increase considered for the exchange rate for the entire year would still lag behind the average inflation expected for the same period, which for economists is 247.4%.a figure that shows a reduction of 9.5 percentage points compared to the survey a month ago.
The price of the official wholesale dollar predicted by economists reaches a maximum of $2,100 by the end of the year.
As for the dollar priceit should be noted that the projections published in recent months by previous reports show a downward trend compared to what was expected for December.
Therefore, among the forecasts made by the 40 economists surveyed by FocusEconomics, Among those who foresee the highest price for the official wholesale ticket for the end of the year, only one of them exceeds $2,000. This is S&P Global Ratings, with $2,100, and further behind are the national consulting firms LCG ($1,812), Fitch Ratings ($1,613) and Econviews, with 1,609 pesos.
“The vision is very similar to the one that had been recorded in recent months, where we assume that there will be a market unification in December and that inflation finds a floor of between 5% to 6% in the next remaining months of the year, which will be difficult to break through,” he summarizes to iProfesional Alejandro Giacoia, Economist at Econviews.
In the same line, Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director of Macroeconomic analysis at Equilibra, which projects $1,500 for Decemberstates: “We are seeing that towards the end of the year the exchange market or the Government will be unified will apply a greater devaluationbecause a 2% monthly depreciation in a context of higher inflation erodes external competitiveness,” he told iProfesional.
While, Rosario Vidaurretaeconomist at Analytica, a consulting firm that forecasts $1,268 by the end of 2024complete: “Starting in July the monthly crawling peg can increase beyond 2%, due to the decline in grain exports, something that typically occurs in the second semester.
Dollar price expected by the market
When taking into account what is the consensus price What the market is taking today for the official wholesale dollar by the end of next December, according to the latest survey by FocusEconomics among more than 40 economists, will be $1,331.1a decline of about 65 pesos compared to the forecasts made in last May’s report ($1,396) for the same date.
The data confirm a downward trend in the estimates for the exchange rate for the end of the year since Three months ago, 2024 was expected to end at a value of $1,702.
The price consensus of 40 economists for the official wholesale dollar at the end of the year is $1,331, but some raise alarm bells and consider that it may be higher.
Likewise, the Higher price estimates, around $2,000, are not to be ignored since they take into account the exchange rate delay, and the inflation levels and amount of foreign currency in the Central Bank’s reserves for the coming months..
In fact, Today the value of the ticket in the free segment is close to $1,300which is similar to what the consensus expects for the official currency for December.
If the official wholesale exchange rate reaches the consensus of $1,331 by the end of the year, In all of 2024, it will reach an advance of 64.6%, a level much lower than the expected consumer price index (CPI) (247%). And, according to forecasts, from now until the end of December the dollar should rise 47.5%.
For now, in the Matba-Rofex futures and options market is currently traded at the wholesale exchange rate by the end of December around $1,180, a value similar to that predicted by the Market Expectations Survey (REM) for that date, which is $1,174.7, but about 150 pesos less than those estimated by FocusEconomics.-
